The arrival of a large Russian military contingent on Belarusian soil is seen as an indicator of the coming intensification of the Russian offensive in Ukraine.
It is a front of the war that is fueling fears of a new Russian offensive in Ukraine, as Vladimir Putin prepares to deliver a state of the nation address on Tuesday, February 21. As the first anniversary of the invasion approaches, threats from Belarus are becoming more pressing. Thanks to amateur videos, satellite images and specialized observers, France Televisions Revealers were able to document the Russian military establishment in Belarus, both rear base and outpost of Moscow in this conflict.
These images reveal the extent of this campaign: combat training, joint exercises, reinforcement of the Belarusian military arsenal… An intense activity which raises questions, especially since similar exercises had been observed on Belarusian territory before the offensive of February 2022. At the time, Belarus had served as a rear base for this offensive, part of the Russian armed forces launching the assault on the Kiev region from the south of the country.
Important transfers of men and goods in Belarus
Despite the retreat of Russian troops in northern Ukraine at the start of the conflict, the rapprochement between Minsk and Moscow has not ceased. It even intensified. On October 10, Belarus thus announced the creation on its territory of a joint military force with its Russian ally. Since then, the press organ of Belarusian Ministry of Defense communicates regularly on the joint maneuvers of Russian and Belarusian forces, on the borders of Ukraine and Poland.
On October 15, he aired an eloquent report. Shot at night, it shows the arrival of the first Russian military contingent. According to a document posted on Telegram (in Belarusian) by the Community of Belarusian Railway Workers, the images are shot at the Polonka station, about a hundred kilometers southwest of Minsk. The document details the journey of the convoy: it left two days earlier from Selyatino station, on the outskirts of Moscow, to arrive in Belarus on October 14.
Owned by the Federal Carrier of Russia’s Western Military District, the train carried 32 wagons of military equipment and eight Russian military cars. According to a count made by France Télévisions, which is based in particular on information relayed by the Community of Railway Workers of Belarus on instagram (in Belarusian)at least 20 similar convoys crossed the border between October 15, 2022 and January 16 this year.
On the spot, troop movements are daily. And on social networks, videos of military convoys circulating on the Belarusian side are multiplying. Their geolocation reveals a global military action, in all four corners of the country, and not just on the border with Ukraine, as this map of the site shows Belarusian Hajun (in Belarusian)a project to monitor Russian military activity in Belarus.
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In Baranovichi, for example, a Belarusian city located in the West, an Internet user filmed in early January and posted on Telegram (in Belarusian) a video of a train loaded with various military vehicles and armaments traveling towards Brest, on the border with Poland. According to data from the Belarusian Ministry of Defense relayed by the Reuters press agency (in English) and verified by France Télévisions, Russia has deployed around 9,000 soldiers to Belarus since mid-October.
Large-scale joint military exercises
On January 16, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced the opening of two weeks of joint military training, in particular dedicated to the air. On their social networks, Minsk and Moscow still bragged massively about these operations, with images of tactical flights, front line defense exercises or troop movements.
On the ground, military infrastructure has also been reinforced. On January 11, satellite images of the Zyabrovka military airfield in the Gomel region of far eastern Belarus reveal the presence of new Russian air defense systems. These installations were still visible three weeks later, as shown by these satellite images of the American company Planet Labs.
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Russia has also provided its ally with military attack equipment. On February 1, Minsk declared that its armed forces now have autonomous control of the Iskander mobile guided missile systems supplied by Moscow, as reported Reuters (in English). These short and medium range ballistic weapons, used by Moscow in Ukraine, can carry conventional but also nuclear charges.
The operation of the Belarusian training grounds is expected to continue in the coming months. On January 31, Moscow and Minsk signed a deal bearing on “the establishment of combat training centers” spouses “on Belarusian territory”. And the holding of new operational exercises, baptized “Union Shield-2023”was announced for next September.
A limited number of returns to Russia
By creating a “regional grouping of armed forces” on the border of Ukraine and NATO, Russia shows a little more muscle and casts doubt on a new offensive from Belarus. To believe a recent daily update from the British Ministry of Defense posted on Twitterthis scenario remains “unlikely”. “Although Russia maintains a large number of forces in Belarus, they are mainly involved in training,” believes London, sweeping away the hypothesis “of a credible offensive force”. The Study of War Institute (in English)specializing in military research, does not rule out the medium-term hypothesis, however, until a contingent is consolidated.
For its part, Minsk evokes an operation “purely defensive”. “The decision to create a regional grouping of troops was taken (…) solely for the purpose of strengthening protection and defence” of Belarus as an ally of Moscow, assured the Belarusian Ministry of Defense in a press release relayed by its communication organ, Voen TV. These actions worry, despite everything, the Ukrainian border guards and military. To deal with this threat, the borders with Belarus have been reinforced with several dozen trenches.
To date, a limited number of Russian soldiers have in any case returned to Russia. According to our count, only five rail convoys and a thousand Russian men trained on Belarusian grounds made the return trip.