Danielle Smith’s victory in the Alberta election last Monday will certainly complicate Steven Guilbeault’s life. The federal Minister of the Environment plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 42% in the oil and gas sector (compared to their 2019 level) by 2030. Ottawa is also aiming for carbon neutrality in production of electricity in the country in 2035. Mme Smith was already at war with these two federal policies before the provincial election. Re-elected at the head of a majority government, the Alberta Premier now intends to continue this battle with even more ferocity to make Mr. Guilbeault bend.
“We must come together, no matter how we voted, to fight the soon-to-be-announced Ottawa policies that would significantly harm our provincial economy,” she said in her speech Monday night. As Premier, there is no way I can allow these policies to be inflicted on Albertans. »
For Mr. Guilbeault, this is a moment of truth. Will he moderate his ambitions in order to limit Alberta’s discontent, even if Canada once again misses its greenhouse gas reduction targets? Or will he prefer to continue his momentum in order to achieve these famous targets by forcing a reduction in oil and gas production? “I am convinced that we will be able to resolve our differences,” Mr. Guilbeault dropped this week in reaction to Mr.me Smith. Does he dream in color?
According to federal data for 2021, Alberta accounts for almost 40% of all GHG emissions in Canada. The latter totaled 670 million tonnes nationally and 256 million tonnes in Alberta, compared to 78 million tonnes in Quebec and 151 million tonnes in Ontario. As for emissions from the oil and gas sector, at the Canadian level, they amounted to 190 million tonnes, including approximately 140 million tonnes in Alberta.
Achieving the 42% GHG reduction target in the oil and gas sector “would have the effect of locking up our oil,” said Ms.me Smith shortly after winning the United Conservative Party of Alberta leadership race last fall. “I’m told this would require a reduction of up to two million barrels per day, or almost half of our production… Do the math, that’s half of all jobs in this sector, half of our royalties in this sector, billions of dollars. »
The oil industry relies on carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects to reduce its emissions without having to resort to reducing production. However, even in the most optimistic scenario, the oil companies grouped within the New Pathways Alliance (Pathways Alliance) foresee a reduction in their emissions of only 22% by the end of the decade thanks to CCS, and this only on condition governments foot the bulk of the bill for associated projects. The New Ways Alliance puts forward the figure of 16.5 billion as an estimate of the costs of CCS projects. But everyone knows the real bill will be much higher than that. In fact, the technology the industry relies on to meet its greenhouse gas targets has not even been proven to work, and its development costs continue to rise.
Mr. Guilbeault has promised to provide more details this year on how Ottawa intends to proceed to meet its emission reduction targets in the energy sector. Unless the minister pulls a rabbit out of his hat, the 2030 deadline is unrealistic. Nor that of 2032, which he mentioned last year, saying he wanted to be flexible. There is simply no way to achieve these goals without forcing a reduction in domestic oil production. Mr. Guilbeault will certainly find Mr.me Smith on his way if he ever strives to go in that direction.
So is the federal goal of achieving carbon neutral electricity generation in the country by 2035. Alberta’s former NDP government under Rachel Notley made significant strides on this front by reducing the province’s reliance on coal — but primarily by building new natural gas plants. Although less polluting than coal, gas currently accounts for nearly two-thirds of electricity generation in Alberta, compared to 12% for wind and 2% for solar. And Mme Smith has no intention of giving up gas, of which his province abounds. “It makes sense to heat our homes with natural gas. It makes sense for us to have gas stoves, she said last March. It makes sense for us to have electricity powered by natural gas. »
In the same speech, delivered at a Canada Strong and Free Network conference by former Reform leader Preston Manning, Danielle Smith called federal environmental policies an “existential risk” for Alberta. On Monday evening, she said that if Ottawa persists with these kinds of policies, it “will test the patience and good faith of Albertans in an unprecedented way.” Be warned, Mr. Guilbeault.
Based in Montreal, Konrad Yakabuski is a columnist at Globe and Mail.