According to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, French growth is almost zero.
French growth recorded a tiny 0.1% increase in our gross domestic product (GDP) between July and September, according to the‘The national institute of statistics and economic studies (INSEE). We are almost at zero growth, a sign of the slowdown, of the cold snap of economic activity in France, knowing that growth in the second quarter had been revised upwards, 0.6 rather than 0.5%, underlines the Ministry of Finance. Which means that we are almost already at 1% cumulatively. For this year 2023, we’re saving the day.
The French economy is resisting, but with difficulty. Nothing to get excited about even if, compared to our German neighbor, for example, which is in recession, we are limiting the damage. What allows us to remain positive, even slightly, is this small rebound in households on the consumption side, this third quarter in particular for food products, but also for all goods.
An equally difficult year 2024 in perspective
We therefore consumed slightly more. This is worth emphasizing because we see that consumption on the shelves has picked up again after eight months of decline. Obviously this is linked to inflation which is slowing down. And it is important for the future because it is on consumption, the primary engine of the French economy, that the government is counting. And then some other good news too, there have been investments again, particularly on the business side.
It’s always difficult to make forecasts, but the economy is weakening. Bercy still expects growth of 1.4% in 2024 but all experts anticipate a more difficult year, especially in a very uncertain international context. If inflation has slowed a little it is thanks to more controlled energy prices. But will it last? With what is happening in the Middle East, some analysts predict a barrel price of oil that could reach $150, twice as much as today. And then, on the unemployment side too, the forecasts are getting darker. The unemployment rate is expected to rise at the end of the year. Experts from the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE), for example, anticipate an increase to 8%.