cohabitation, Assembly without a majority… What scenarios for France?

The result of the legislative elections scheduled for June 30 and July 7 looks uncertain. Depending on the distribution of seats in the Assembly, the country could experience cohabitation or a blockage.

The dissolution of the National Assembly, announced on June 9 by Emmanuel Macron after the European elections, opened an unprecedented period in the history of the Fifth Republic. And the legislative elections, which are being held on June 30 and July 7, appear more uncertain than ever. If the presidential camp still wants to believe in it despite its heavy defeat in the European election, a victory for the National Rally no longer seems impossible, while the left-wing forces are trying to put all the chances on their side by allying under the banner of a New Popular Front.

The verdict of the ballot boxes will determine the color of the 577 seats in the Assembly, and therefore that of the future government. Will the Macronists regain their lost absolute majority in 2022? Will the head of state be forced to cohabit with the RN or the left? Will the hemicycle elected by the French produce no clear majority? Franceinfo delves into the scenarios that could play out the day after July 7.

1 A Macronist majority

This is the dream scenario of Emmanuel Macron, who on June 11 assured the Figaro Magazine y “go to win”. It is also one of the least likely, the political situation being even less favorable than in 2022 for the troops of the head of state, who then failed to obtain an absolute majority.

With a Macronist majority – Renaissance, Modem, Horizons, UDI – in the National Assembly, the President of the Republic could appoint a Prime Minister from his camp. Would Gabriel Attal then stay at Matignon? ? The outgoing head of government is in any case leading the majority campaign and is once again a candidate for deputy. If the presidential camp regains its majority lost during the 2022 legislative elections, it will be able to continue examining the numerous bills left pending, such as those on the end of life or the merger of public broadcasting companies.

In the event of victory, Emmanuel Macron showed himself open to the idea of ​​modifying some of the priorities of a future Renaissance government during his press conference on Wednesday June 12. The head of state, for example, proposed the “removal of a territorial level” and suspended constitutional reform concerning New Caledonia.

2 An opposition majority

Building on its large victory in the European elections, the National Rally – which had 88 deputies in the outgoing Assembly – hopes to win a absolute majority. The left hopes to do the same with its alliance, the New Popular Front. If one of the two blocs were to obtain a majority, a period of cohabitation would begin. This scenario only occurred three times in the Fifth Republic: from 1986 to 1988, between President François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac, from 1993 to 1995, between François Mitterrand and Edouard Balladur, and from 1997 to 2002, between Jacques Chirac, who became president, and Lionel Jospin. Thus, in the event of an absolute majority for the RN, Jordan Bardella could be appointed to Matignon. Conversely, a left-wing figure would be chosen to lead the government in the event of a victory for the New Popular Front.

According to article 8 of the Constitution, it is the President who is responsible for appointing the Prime Minister. But in the event of victory for the opposition in the legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron will have to, according to custom, appoint a head of government from its ranks. THE “center of gravity” power would therefore shift towards the Prime Minister, since article 20 of the Constitution provides that “it is the government, and not the President of the Republic, which ‘determines and conducts the policy of the nation'”, explains the Constitutional Council.

“A president exercising during cohabitation is placed in an almost erased role; the more classic one that we encounter in other parliamentary regimes”, specifies Alexandre Frambéry-Iacobone, law researcher at the University of Bordeaux, in an article on The Conversation.

In practice, the president still retains several prerogatives, linked to international politics and the armed forces. According to the Constitution, it is he who “negotiates and ratifies treaties”. It can also refer the laws passed by Parliament to the Constitutional Council and continue to appoint prefects and ambassadors. He also chairs the Council of Ministers.

In practice, however, the head of state cannot block government action and must therefore seek consensus with the Prime Minister. In the event of a blockage, he has the ultimate weapon: the dissolution of the National Assembly. But, as Article 12 of the Constitution specifies, the president cannot dissolve again in the year following the early legislative elections. In any case, Emmanuel Macron will therefore not be able to use this prerogative before July 2025.

3 No party obtains an absolute majority

The elections could result in a fragmented assembly, in which no party has an absolute majority. Different political groups could then ally themselves. Emmanuel Macron left the door open to this possibility during his press conference, calling, “before or after” the legislative elections, to a gathering of those who will have “know how to say no to extremes”. If the presidential coalition came out on top, it could therefore ally with other deputies or another party to ensure support for the government.

The practice is, however, little anchored in parliamentary habits in France. During the previous mandate, the Macronist camp had failed to forge an alliance with the 61 Republican deputies. If it only obtains a relative majority, the RN could try to seek support, for example on the LR benches. The question of an alliance with Marine Le Pen’s troops has also torn the right party apart since the start of the campaign.

In the same situation, the New Popular Front could also seek alliances, with certain elected Macronists or various leftists. Depending on the alliances formed after the election, a situation of cohabitation could therefore be put in place. Another possibility is the establishment of an anti-RN alliance if the latter comes first without an absolute majority, with the left, right and center parties.

In the event that the parties fail to form an alliance, the president will have to appoint a Prime Minister responsible for governing with a relative majority, as has been the case since 2022. The governments of Elisabeth Borne, then of Gabriel Attal, had 250 deputies out of 577.

The risk of blockage is high in this configuration, as the government does not have enough seats to pass its bills. Certain texts can be adopted thanks to article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the vote of deputies to be overridden. Elisabeth Borne used it 17 times between 2022 and 2023. But the Assembly can reject the text by voting in a motion of censure, which has the effect of forcing the government to resign. A possibility to which the executive will be particularly exposed, the threat of a new dissolution of the Assembly cannot be brandished by Emmanuel Macron before July 2025.