Global carbon dioxide emissions, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels and the cause of global warming, are expected to increase by around 1% to reach a new record in 2023, scientists said in a study on Tuesday. preliminary.
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If humanity wants to meet its goals of reducing carbon pollution emissions by almost half during this decade and thus limit the disastrous effects on the climate, global emissions should have fallen by around 5% this year, explains to AFP Glen Peters, research director at the CICERO climate research institute in Norway.
However, instead, they continue to increase: in 2023 alone, they are expected to increase by 0.5 to 1.5%, according to Mr. Peters’ work.
“It is very unlikely that emissions will decrease,” says the scientist.
These figures, still preliminary, show how difficult it will be to reduce emissions quickly enough to meet the Paris agreement’s most ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above current levels. pre-industrial.
Warming beyond this threshold risks triggering dangerous tipping points in the climate system, scientists warn.
“Each year, emissions continue to increase, making it all the more difficult to achieve trajectories consistent with that of Paris,” underlines Mr. Peters.
The study’s full figures will be released in December, as world leaders gather in the United Arab Emirates for crucial U.N. climate negotiations expected to be dominated by international wrangling over the future of fossil fuels, the main sources of CO2 emissions.
Earlier this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that, for the first time, global demand for oil, gas and coal is expected to peak this decade due to “spectacular” growth. cleaner energy technologies and electric cars.
But she also warned of the negative impact of increased investment in fossil fuels and “stubbornly high emissions” during the post-Covid economic rebound and the energy crisis caused by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
The scientific community had hoped in 2015 that emissions could then peak, recalls Mr. Peters, then again, during the pandemic, it was hoped that 2019 would mark a maximum. “Yet here we are again, with a new peak in 2022, and another peak expected again in 2023.”
“What concerns me is that we are doing half the job, developing clean energy, and we are not doing the other half of the job, moving away from fossil fuels,” he explains.