(Paris) Major regional powers such as India, Brazil, Russia or Saudi Arabia could face “cascading” crises due to the impacts of climate change, according to a risk analysis firm.
Posted at 8:13 p.m.
Verisk Maplecroft looked at 32 points – weather events, political situation, economy, security of supply, poverty or human rights – to assess the ability of countries to cope with predictable climate-related crises, such as major heat waves. which Western Europe has been confronted with in recent months, with their attendant droughts and fires.
He thus established a ranking, published Thursday, between “protected”, “precarious” or “vulnerable” countries.
Unsurprisingly, the most developed are found in the first category, combining criteria of wealth, governance or robustness of infrastructures.
Most poor countries find themselves in the “vulnerable” category, such as certain middle-income countries such as India, Indonesia or South Africa.
“The low level of investment in secondary risks demonstrates that most countries are totally unprepared to deal with the impacts of global warming, in political, economic or development terms”, write the analysts.
For Will Nichols, “climate and resilience” manager at Verisk Maplecroft, the main surprises come from the precarious category, with regional powers such as Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Mexico.
“Brazil is in a perilous balance. A little nothing could drop it into the latter category and we are witnessing the erosion of social and environmental protections under (President Jair) Bolsonaro,” he told AFP.
In Russia, the energy or mining infrastructures in the Arctic will suffer from global warming and if the phenomenon is poorly managed, the country’s economy, which relies on these revenues, will be harmed. “Conditions favorable to unrest, violence and populism, which could again lead to war”, note the analysts.
Mexico, although a member of the G20, is “precarious” mainly because of the possible repercussions of climate change on its neighbors, which could trigger waves of migration.
“These risks are not contained by political borders. Your house may be in order, but if your neighbor’s house isn’t, it can seriously undermine your ability to protect yourself,” says Nichols.
Consequently, “we can say that the most protected countries have the responsibility to help the vulnerable to protect themselves, which in turn protects us”, underlines the analyst, while the promise of the rich countries of a $100 billion a year in climate finance aid to poor countries is still unfulfilled.