Despite growing awareness of the need to combat global warming, humanity was too slow to act. She will therefore have to live in a “degraded and disoriented” world, warns the journalist from New York Times David Wallace-Wells. However, progress in energy transition gives us hope that we will avoid the apocalypse that was predicted just a few years ago.
“The climate system which made us what we are, at the origin of everything we call culture and civilization of humanity, this climate system has succumbed,” he wrote, in 2019, in a shocking book titled The uninhabitable Earth: living 4°C warmer. “The devastation that we are witnessing around us at the moment is a much more optimistic scenario than the future of global warming and all the catastrophes that it will generate,” added the man who is now a columnist for the prestigious New York daily.
Four years later, in light of the multiple catastrophes which mark this year 2023 on the way to becoming the hottest in the history of humanity, David Wallace-Wells believes that several observations recorded in the work are more relevant than ever. news.
“Since we continue to send carbon into the atmosphere, and therefore temperatures are increasing, extreme weather events are more frequent and more intense,” he emphasizes in an interview with The duty. He cites as an example the devastating forest fires that hit Canada, in which millions of citizens on both sides of the border breathed in the smoke.
The crisis is such, in fact, that it threatens more than ever the promise of a “secure” future, adds the one who is visiting Montreal this Wednesday at the invitation of Art Speaks, which is organizing a conference on climate at the Outremont theater. Fortunately, “people are paying more attention to extreme events and are increasingly understanding the link to climate change.”
What’s more, the implementation of solutions is accelerating and finally offers some “hope”. Investments in renewable energies are such that the International Energy Agency foresees a “peak” in demand for fossil fuels in the coming years. And several States, but also companies, have set decarbonization objectives which will help limit climate disruption.
Path
This progress means, according to David Wallace-Wells, that humanity is moving away from the climate apocalypse that he foresaw in The uninhabitable Earth, i.e. a warming of 3°C, or even 4°C over the coming decades. Such a trajectory was in sight before the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015.
The extent of current warming nonetheless continues to seriously threaten the future of humanity. Assuming that all countries respect their voluntary commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the increase in average temperatures will reach at least 2.5°C, according to the United Nations.
However, this scenario is not encouraging, insists the columnist of New York Times. Beyond 2°C of warming, episodes of extreme heat will make certain regions “unlivable” for a good part of the year, air pollution will kill tens of millions of people annually and droughts will be more increasingly frequent and intense, which will harm global food production. Without forgetting the irreversible damage to crucial elements of biodiversity, including tropical forests and oceans.
The international community committed in 2015 to do everything possible to limit warming to 1.5°C, a threshold considered desirable to avoid the worst. But it is today “impossible” to envisage respecting this target, according to David Wallace-Wells. “If we collectively made the unprecedented effort to focus all our attention on decarbonization, perhaps it would be possible. But we are so far from that. »
He cites as an example the numerous fossil fuel development projects which continue to be approved, particularly in Canada. “The best science tells us that we cannot approve a single additional project if we want to stay below 2°C of warming. Therefore, any new project approved in Canada or elsewhere in the world jeopardizes this objective. It’s not just about adding renewable energy to a dirty energy system. We need to get away from fossil fuels. »
Impacts
“What is happening now is not enough to allow us to avoid damaging warming. We will therefore have to navigate a degraded and disoriented world, because warming will continue,” he warns.
The problem is that States, in addition to delaying action to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, still do not fully understand the future impacts on human populations. “It’s not just about adapting to the world that we see more and more clearly, for example with this year’s fires. In fact, adaptation will be increasingly difficult in the decades to come. How are we going to respond to all the crises that will arise and which will hit our cities, our infrastructure, our arable land, etc.? ? »
Mr. Wallace-Wells also fears the humanitarian and socio-political crises that risk arising from influxes of migrants forced to leave their region, country or continent due to the impacts of the climate crisis. According to World Bank data, tens of millions of people could find themselves in this situation by 2050.
Moreover, he is not counting on the United Nations climate conferences, such as COP28 scheduled in two months, to change the course of things. According to him, the ambition to fight against the most serious environmental crisis in human history is today more the work of local and national actors, and not of major events where the fossil fuel industry is omnipresent.
“We are seeing a growth in climate hypocrisy, with leaders portraying fossil fuels as an existential threat and talking about the dire need for progress, but making few or no concrete commitments. I don’t think that COP28, which is being held in the United Arab Emirates, will change things. It might even be worse than I expect. »