Climate change should not make wind energy more difficult to produce in the coming decades, according to a joint study by Nergica, Ouranos and Hydro-Québec.
The study, unveiled on Wednesday, concludes that the effect of climate change on winds and frost, two meteorological conditions that affect wind energy production, will not be significant over the 2031-2060 horizon. in North America.
This conclusion is excellent news, comments Nergica’s project manager, Marilys Clément. “In Canada, what we need to know is whether our wind turbines in cold climates will continue to be efficient. […] The information we have just provided is that wind turbines are a safe bet. »
The study thus provides grist to the mill for elected officials and promoters who want to bet on this sector, she adds. “This is essential information for planning the energy transition. »
Quebec produces nearly 4,000 megawatts (MW) of wind power. The Minister of Economy and Energy, Pierre Fitzgibbon, wants this production to quadruple by 2040. “That’s the minimum,” he said during an address to the Chamber. of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal, Friday.
Humanity will need to significantly reduce its fossil fuel consumption to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
At the same time, electricity consumption is expected to increase in the coming decades in a context of energy transition. In Canada, the Canada Energy Regulator predicts a 47% increase between 2021 and 2050.
In Quebec, Hydro-Quebec estimates that it will need 100 terawatt hours to decarbonize the economy by 2050. This figure could even be higher, suggested Mr. Fitzgibbon recently.
Winds and Frost
The study focused on two variables: wind and frost. Regarding the wind, climate change should not have a significant effect on wind power production, believes the scientific manager of Ouranos, Hélène Côté.
“Wind results from a competition between several mechanisms, which are not affected in the same way by climate change,” she explains. The net result of this are changes which, for the moment, in the current state of climate mobilization, are negligible. »
These conclusions should not be extrapolated for North America to the whole planet. It is possible that the assumptions are different for other regions of the world, nuance Ms. Côté. “I wouldn’t go there. Behavior may be different over oceans than over continents. »
Frost, for its part, is already a major issue for the wind industry, underlines Ms. Clément. “When frost accumulates on a wind turbine, the wind turbine will perform less. For the same wind, its production will be lower. There are some wind turbines that will turn more slowly when there is frost. It can go to a complete stop, so no production. »
Frost periods can also lead to breakage and complicate the maintenance of wind turbines, she adds.
Frost would cause annual economic losses estimated at $113 million for wind power producers in Canada, according to data published in 2017 by Natural Resources Canada. “It’s an estimate because private developers do not share the value of energy losses due to frost”, nuance Ms. Clément.
The study anticipates regional changes with respect to the icing season, but these should not have significant impacts on wind generation.
“In our results, there was no significant change in frost in the places where the wind farms are installed, therefore further south in Canada. There is an increase in the duration of the presence of frost in the Far North, at the top of the polar circle. Then we notice that there are going to be shorter seasons in certain places near the oceans, near Hudson Bay. »