(Ottawa) Canada has never reached its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target and the latest plan put in place by the Trudeau government is no exception. Environment and Sustainable Development Commissioner Jerry DeMarco notes that not only is it insufficient, but measures for the oil and gas industry are being delayed.
“It is essential to be able to correct the situation in order to achieve the objective,” he wrote in one of his five reports tabled in Parliament on Tuesday. And it’s not too late to do it.
The commissioner notes that several key measures to reduce GHG emissions have been delayed since 2021. The cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector, as well as the new methane regulations for this industry, are late without anyone knowing when they are revealed. These are two of five policies that should have come into force in 2022 or 2023.
“These delays increase the likelihood that Canada will miss its 2030 target,” notes Mr. DeMarco.
As part of the Paris Climate Agreement, Canada has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 2005 levels by 2030. The goal is to limit the increase global average temperature below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.
However, the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change’s Emissions Reduction Plan for 2030 is insufficient to achieve this target, concludes the commissioner. The measures put forward would instead make it possible to reduce emissions by 34% compared to 2005, according to the government’s own admission.
The commissioner notes several shortcomings. For example, the plan specifies no emissions reduction targets for 76 of its 80 measures and less than half of them have an implementation date. In fact, the government expects “only 34 of 80 measures (43%) to have a direct impact on emissions.” It is therefore “impossible to know which mitigation measures are essential to reduce emissions” or whether they were “implemented on time”.
The GHG reductions estimated by the government are unreliable, according to him. They rely on “overly optimistic assumptions, limited analysis of uncertainties and lack of peer review”. Modeling attributes a reduction of 27 megatonnes of CO equivalent2 to carbon capture and storage, assuming that this technology would be available shortly. It also does not take into account the increase in demand for air conditioning due to the greater number of hot days caused by climate change and therefore its impact on the GHG balance.
Mr. DeMarco makes a series of recommendations to allow the government to correct the situation.
More details to come.