Global warming played only a minimal role in the famine that hit Madagascar, estimates a study published Thursday, December 2 and which contradicts previous UN statements. The southern part of this island in the Indian Ocean is hit by a drought unprecedented in several decades, which has left more than a million people in acute malnutrition.
In June, the World Food Program (WFP) called this crisis the first famine due to global warming. A dimension on which the Malagasy authorities insist. “My compatriots are taking the toll of a climate crisis in which they were not involved”, thus affirmed in November the president Andry Rajoelina, during the COP26 in Glasgow.
But these are not the conclusions of the study by World Weather Attribution, a network of scientists who pioneered the attribution of extreme events to climate change. During the last two monsoons (2019-2020 and 2020-2021), the amount of rain was 60% lower than normal in southern Madagascar. Such a rainfall deficit for 24 consecutive months (July 2019 to June 2021) has a one in 135 chance of occurring every year, according to WWA estimates. But based on observations and climate models, the probability of such an event occurring “did not increase significantly” because of the deregulation, assure the researchers.
These results are compatible with the assessment of the UN climate expert group (IPCC) published in August. This report indicates that in Madagascar, the predicted increase in droughts under the influence of warming should only occur from + 2 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era. However, for the moment, the world has gained around 1.1 ° C. “If there is a part of climate change [dans cette famine], it is minimal “, assures AFP an author of the study, Robert Vautard, of the Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute.
According to these scientists, the famine in Madagascar is due to a drought linked to the chance of natural climatic variations, as well as to the vulnerability of one of the poorest populations in the world. In a region where rain is vital for subsistence agriculture and animal husbandry, “it is difficult for local communities to cope with any prolonged drought”, notes the study.
“As we have relative confidence in the fact that droughts will increase in Madagascar at least from + 2 ° C, it still leads to worry and to try to limit climate change”, notes Robert Vautard. In this context, “tackling vulnerability in the region and improving living conditions is critical”, pleads for his part the director of the Climate Center of the Red Cross and Red Crescent. The financing of adaptation to the consequences of global warming is one of the most sensitive issues in international negotiations, with developing countries demanding more aid from rich countries to face a crisis for which they are the least responsible.