This text is taken from our newsletter “Coronavirus Mail” of May 2, 2022. To subscribe, click here.
From the savannah to the boreal forest, thousands of viruses circulate “silently” among hundreds of animal species. Of the lot, at least 10,000 viruses could infect humans, but the opportunities to jump from their species to ours are lacking.
Climate change should, however, give all these beautiful people the opportunity to meet and exchange their viruses, according to a study published last week in the scientific journal Nature.
Based on extensive numerical modeling of 3,100 mammal species, the researchers estimate that around 300,000 “first encounters” will take place between species that do not normally interact, resulting in around 15,000 “viral spillovers” of 2070.
Some places will be particularly conducive to meetings. Animals fleeing the heat, for example, will tend to climb in altitude. Thus, two species living on either side of a mountain range could meet at the end of their ascent.
Some species will also have a disproportionate effect. Since they fly, bats — which are also an important viral reservoir — will be able to move more quickly to adapt to climate change. They will account for the majority of viral exchange, believe scientists led by Colin J. Carlson, of Georgetown University, Washington DC
Although it does not concern theHomo sapiens First, each viral exchange increases the possibility of creating “bridges” that can help viruses reach us in the end. It should be added that the risks highlighted in the study are only part of the problem: the modeling does not include birds or pathogens other than viruses.
The climatic multiplication of viral overflows would already be the work. In interview at The Atlanticvirologist Vineet Menachery points out that the new publication in Nature indicates that the high frequency of viral outbreaks observed in the last decades is not an anomaly, but rather “what one should expect, and which could even accelerate”.