Despite the Legault government’s reassuring rhetoric, Quebec is not on track to sufficiently reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet its climate commitments, concludes the Advisory Committee on Climate Change. It therefore advocates a shift toward energy “sobriety,” an increase in carbon pricing and “binding” measures to ambitiously tackle the crisis.
The message contained in this new independent opinion submitted to Environment Minister Benoit Charette makes a very clear call to the government: “Quebec’s level of ambition must resolutely increase” if we want to give ourselves a chance to substantially reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transform Quebec society in order to deal with climate disruption.
The experts mandated to advise the minister point out that “Quebec’s climate policies have not led to decarbonization that meets climate challenges.” They point out that between 1990 and 2021, GHG emissions from the road transportation sector increased by 16%, while total emissions in Quebec decreased by only 9%. What’s more, they increased in 2022, compared to 2021. In short, at present, “efforts remain insufficient” and “the window to achieve our decarbonization objectives is shrinking every day.”
Chair of the Advisory Committee on Climate Change, Alain Webster argues that “emissions in Quebec are not in line with the recommendations of international organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or the International Energy Agency,” but also that “the trajectory toward complete decarbonization by 2050 will become increasingly demanding if we do not accelerate our efforts.”
The scientists who wrote this sixth opinion of the Committee since its creation in 2021 also warn that the reduction in GHG emissions will have to be “abrupt” by 2050 to achieve “carbon neutrality”. For example, between 2022 and 2030, the reduction in GHGs must reach at least 3.2 million tonnes per year, the equivalent of removing 1.3 million gasoline cars from the road.
To achieve this, experts advocate the implementation of “structural changes” in our society in order to initiate the process of “decarbonization”, which involves a shift towards “energy sobriety”. They cite as an example, once again, the need to review land use planning and “densify cities”, but also to develop public and active transport in order to reduce the need for “individual motorized travel”, and therefore the number of cars.
The Committee also notes that the cap-and-trade system for GHG emission allowances (the carbon market) and the various eco-tax measures “have not provided a sufficient price signal to induce, in Quebec, the necessary reduction in GHG emissions.” They therefore call on the government to increase the price of carbon in order to send a message in favour of “a sufficient transformation of production and consumption patterns.”
Need for “mobilization”
In their advice to Minister Charette, climate change specialists also raise the idea of a “carbon budget” that takes into account GHG reduction targets, as exists in France and the United Kingdom, which would allow “a recalibration of climate action if the objectives are not achieved.”
“Despite growing awareness of climate issues, the government’s actions have not been enough to mobilize all of society’s stakeholders in a commitment commensurate with the crisis,” the members of the Advisory Committee on Climate Change also emphasize.
They cite as an example the latest Climate Action Barometer, which reveals that while more than three in four people (77%) believe that Quebec has the capacity to act against climate change, far fewer (38%) believe that it is acting effectively. “This gap is likely to fuel anger and frustration, even discouragement, among the Quebec population,” the Committee points out. A growing share of the population actually says they feel powerless (68%), an increase of six percentage points since 2021.
“To mobilize the population, new stories are expected, prioritizing sobriety, emphasizing in particular the significantly greater benefits of climate action compared to inaction and recalling that ambitious objectives can still be achieved if we act now,” emphasizes Valériane Champagne St-Arnaud, member of the Committee and assistant professor in the Department of Marketing at Université Laval.
“Quebec is one of the states best placed to make the transition. We therefore have a duty to set an example,” Alain Webster also argues, recalling that “the environmental, social and economic consequences of climate change would be enormous.”
But whether or not Quebec reduces its GHG emissions, it must absolutely implement adaptation measures to deal with global climate disruption, insists Mr. Webster, citing the need to green cities, but also the protection of natural ecosystems. The slowness of states to act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions risks causing warming that will easily exceed 4 °C in southern Quebec well before the end of the century, the Expert Group on Adaptation to Climate Change mandated by the Legault government recently warned.