It would be a mistake to believe that the legendary tolerance of Canadians towards newcomers would be limitless. When the rent for an apartment in Toronto or Vancouver exceeds $3,000 per month on average, as has recently become the case, it is inevitable that some voters will begin to question the Trudeau government’s goal of even raise annual immigration thresholds to welcome 500,000 new permanent residents in 2025.
This policy, which aims to remedy a labor shortage and boost economic growth, could quickly turn sour if it exacerbates a housing crisis and leads to a drop in average per capita income due to a greater proportion of the population living at the bottom of the wage scale.
However, Justin Trudeau’s unshakable faith in the benefits of immigration seems to have blinded him to the dangers that lie in wait.
Canada has largely escaped the controversies surrounding immigration that have taken place in the United States and France in recent years. The theory of the “great replacement”, which animates the supporters of the far right in these countries, has few followers here. First or second generation immigrants already account for more than three-quarters of the population of the greater Toronto and Vancouver areas. And both the Conservative Party of Canada and the New Democratic Party covet the voters of the dozens of multi-ethnic ridings on the outskirts of these two cities for the same reasons as the Liberals: they are the key to an electoral victory. However, when the “Canadian dream” becomes increasingly unattainable due to an ever-growing affordability crisis, it would not be surprising to see the consensus on immigration begin to crumble.
Unlike Quebec, where the debate on immigration focuses on themes of identity and language, English Canada is not very concerned about the effects of immigration on its social or cultural fabric. But in a country where almost everyone aspires to own their own home, even Canadians with an immigrant background might wonder if Ottawa isn’t putting a bit too much on the accelerator by wanting to welcome 500,000 permanent residents in 2025.
According to a Léger poll conducted on behalf of the Association for Canadian Studies last November, shortly after Immigration Minister Sean Fraser’s announcement on raising the thresholds, 49% of respondents said they found the target of 500,000 too high, compared to 31% who supported this figure and 5% who wanted more.
It would therefore not be impossible to see the issue of immigration become an issue during the next federal election campaign, and for the first time in a long time. Indeed, this week, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre added his voice to those denouncing the pressure group Initiative of the Century, whose goal is to increase the Canadian population to 100 million people by the year 2100. , announcing that his party will support a Bloc Québécois motion calling on the Trudeau government “not to be inspired by it” in the development of its immigration policy.
More than a decade ago, the former head of consulting firm McKinsey, Dominic Barton, co-founded the Initiative of the Century. He later chaired the Trudeau government’s Advisory Committee on Economic Growth, which in 2016 recommended raising the annual immigration threshold from about 320,000 to 450,000 per year.
On Thursday, Minister Fraser formally disassociated the Trudeau government from this Toronto pressure group; however, the Liberals’ current immigration policy would bring Canada closer to the goals of the Toronto lobby group.
“The Prime Minister and his corporate friends in the multinationals, like Dominic Barton, have big utopias that they want to create for us instead of building our own country on the basis of the common sense that has worked for over 100 years, Mr. Poilievre said. It remains to be seen whether the Conservative leader will promise to revise downwards the immigration thresholds already adopted by Justin Trudeau. Such a promise would be welcomed by the CAQ government of François Legault, who fears that the current federal policy will bring water to the PQ and sovereignist mills.
The reaction of the Premier of Quebec to recent media reports from Quebecor on the objectives of the Initiative of the Century speaks volumes about the concerns that are gaining the ranks of the Coalition avenir Québec. Mr. Legault’s inability to make the Trudeau government relent on Quebec’s immigration demands becomes a thorn in his side that visibly annoys him more and more.
Luckily for him, there are growing signs that Canadians living outside Quebec do not see the Liberals’ immigration policy as the idea of the century. The next federal election campaign could hold even more surprises in this regard.
Based in Montreal, Konrad Yakabuski is a columnist at Globe and Mail.