In September 2020, the French engineer, consultant and energy and climate specialist Jean-Marc Jancovici affirmed that, to respect the limit set in the Paris Agreement for temperature increases below 2°C, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were to be divided by three by 2050, a reduction of 5% per year over the next 30 years.
“This is roughly what we will have seen as a drop in 2020 following the economic slowdown caused by the confinement. In other words, we would need an additional COVID every year for 30 years to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, ”he illustrated.
Closer to home, and closer in time, Farhad Panahov, an economist at the Royal Bank, notes that Canada’s GHG emissions reached 670 million tonnes (Mt) in 2021. “In order to lower emissions to 440 Mt by 2030, they should be reduced four times more than during the pandemic. Despite an 8.5% reduction in emissions compared to the base year 2005, efforts will have to be intensified to reach the federal government’s target of reducing emissions by 40% by 2030, as provided for in the Emissions Reduction Plan. And we’re not talking about the 2050 net-zero emissions target.
It will take ambition, much more ambition. The economist offers an overview of issues affecting some of the most carbon-intensive sectors.
oil and gas
From the outset, the oil and gas sector is the most challenged. It will have to reduce its emissions by 39% to reach 116 Mt. “This is the largest reduction needed, all sectors combined. Especially since new projects estimated at some 200 billion dollars will see the light of day. And relying on reduction technologies such as carbon capture and storage, whose effectiveness has yet to be demonstrated, will require significant investments in increasing capacity.
So for the time being, if the emission target is 116 Mt in 2030, against 189 Mt in 2021, the projections rather show that this industry is heading towards emissions of 221.7 Mt at the end of the decade. .
Transportation
On the transport side, Farhad Panahov recalls that the Canadian car fleet, responsible for half of the emissions due to transport, has increased by 30% over the past 15 years, to reach the figure of 24 million vehicles. Certainly, more zero-emission automobiles (ZEVs) are being registered, but they only account for 1% of the market in 2021. to 2030, which remains below the declared target of 60%, and 100% by 2035.” And they would then constitute 17% of the total car fleet.
Electricity
Nationally, the transition from coal to natural gas is expected to account for nearly half of the targeted 38 Mt emissions reduction in the power generation sector. “Combustion remains a key source of electricity generation in many provinces. In 2021, it accounted for 91.5% of total production, with coal and natural gas accounting for 30.7% and 42.4% respectively.
Buildings
Population growth and the expansion of living space are causing building emissions to rise faster than energy efficiency can compensate, adds the economist. Unsurprisingly, demand for housing is unlikely to slow down, if only under the impetus of immigration.
Farhad Panahov indicates that in half of the provinces, this sector produces more emissions than in 2005, and recalls that many regions still depend heavily on fossil fuels for heating. “In order to meet the 2030 targets, the sector will need to reduce its emissions by a further 33 Mt, which is a whopping 39% reduction from current levels. Renovating 30% of the current building stock, which represents an enormous and costly challenge, would only achieve half of this target. »
To say that the government of Justin Trudeau dreams of a population of 100 million Canadians in 2100!
Agricultural sector
Another large sector, that of agriculture, will be under great pressure. Agriculture and food systems produce 93 Mt, or just over 13% of Canadian emissions. In another report, the Royal Bank points out that “if Canadian farmers continued to work as they do now, at equal market share, these emissions would reach 137 megatonnes given the 26% population growth expected in the world of by 2050,” as the world’s population moves towards 10 billion people. At the same time, climate change is disrupting the supply chains and productivity of many large agricultural producers. Not to mention the impact of geopolitical shocks.
This is all to be seen in the perspective of the influence fueled by the adoption in the United States of the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains generous incentives capable of exerting a powerful power of attraction on investments. .