The elections of next November in the United States must be seen as forming a whole with those of 2024, the former having a direct impact on the latter. And all about the stability of the world as we know it.
First, the Americans have in front of them a veritable electoral Lego. On the Republican side, the primaries have inducted a good number of Trumpophile or, at the very least, Trumpist candidates. Of those who deny the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s election and embrace the creed “ America First “. If the advent of the Republican Party at the federal and state levels – repeatedly predicted by pollsters – proves to be in 2022, the political landscape of 2024 will change radically. Digging up of districts, state of electoral lists, condition of postal and advance votes, opening of polling stations, counting of votes, validation of results: each stage of the 2024 ballot may be weakened by the 2022 result. nests in 2024.
The two electoral cycles combined will then have a large impact outside the American territory because of the link between the internal and external policies of the United States.
For a long time, theorists of the presidency (like Professor Aaron Wildavsky) believed that the president had two functions so distinct that one could speak of two presidencies. But, in the 1970s, Bayless Manning contrasted with this vision by coining the term “intermesticity” to explain that foreign policy defined by external elements (a crisis, a war, a pandemic) actually depended on considerations aligned with domestic politics.
Biden himself embraced this integrated vision as a senator, then as president, as Professor Frédérick Gagnon explains. It is also in this sense that J. Brian Atwood, of Brown University, abounds when he explains how Biden links internal advances and international approaches: his infrastructure law and the desire to reduce greenhouse gases. in the wake of the Paris Agreement; his immigration reform and helping Central American nations fight climate change; its fight against all forms of discrimination in the United States and the defense of human rights in international forums; its desire to reduce internal economic inequalities and its opposition to the populism that is infiltrating democracies around the world.
This intertwining carries the risk of subordinating foreign policy to domestic policy. This is how a midterm election reshaping the American political scene can end up influencing the positioning of the United States internationally.
In effect, the credibility of American power is decisive. The Prime Minister of Finland may stand up to Putin along its border, Denmark may want to compensate the countries of the South for the damage linked to climate change, Japan and the United Kingdom can make all the statements in the world on the Chinese threat, and France may have a hand in the UN, the fact remains that none of them has the weight of the United States. Like it or not. Whether we like the idea or not.
The Trump years have demonstrated this: dislodging the cornerstone rocks the building. And the powers – the power – which could replace Uncle Sam do not seem to have the ambition to fill this vacuum, but rather count on an instability which would be profitable to them.
However, if American political life enters more into a populist spiral, where society truly ignites around culture wars and where democracy sinks even more rapidly, the risks of irreparable damage are great. Because this internal decay would suck up foreign policy. Either by inertia, as during the Obama years, when procrastination and delaying maneuvers ended up eroding the credibility of the power of the United States on the international scene. Either out of ineptitude, as during the Trump years, which showed the destructive force of an international-skeptical president combined with internal democratic erosion.
It is however essential, in a world in great upheaval, at a time when the Russian head of state is uttering thinly veiled threats, that the American president be able to reiterate – as Biden does – the mantra of the nuclear taboo (no -use of nuclear weapons, no matter how small)…and be believed. And it cannot be if its internal base is fragile or non-existent.
Thus, 2022 is a decisive election because it will consolidate or weaken the checks and balances of American democracy. Because it is the prelude to that of 2024. More than ever: we must not kid ourselves, the return of Trumpism or one of its variations to the Oval Office in 2024 will get the better of these counter-powers. And, ultimately, ours…
Just see how easily the slogan MAGA (“ Make America Great Again ») has made its way into Western democracies, how democracy has eroded all over the world, almost mirroring what has happened only in the United States…
In the current slump, between climatic events and warlike escalations, they could go unnoticed. Yet these midterm elections are crucial. Because they are the keystone of the building.