History has made the rampart of barrier islands, a few dozen kilometers from Fort Myers, a place on the margins of the continent. If all that remains of the time of the Calusas (the first inhabitants of the islands) are mounds of shells which were used to raise their dwellings, this place has shaped legends of buried treasures and epic battles in the time of the buccaneers, these pirates inherited from the colonial era who had made it their landmark. Outpost in the Gulf of Mexico, this chain of islands, from Sanibel to Gasparilla, has been relatively protected from economic development and is distinguished by ecosystems made up of mangroves and fresh water, by its rich fauna and by the abundance seashells that wash up there.
But because they are particularly low, these islands are threatened by rising waters (thus by the infiltration of saline water) and by the saturation of rivers and groundwater, to the point of making any precipitation dangerous. of importance. They also have to deal with the growing presence of invasive species linked to climate change.
While the frequency and strength, but also the ability to rapidly intensify, of hurricanes are tied to warming ocean waters, the United States’ barrier islands are something of a canary in our neighbor’s mine. In Florida, Ian threw himself on them, devouring them, leaving a gaping wound in his path, just as when Ida rolled the Grand Isle of Louisiana in August 2021 or when Dorian hit the Outer Banks of North Carolina in 2019.
In this regard, the phenomenon is not new. However, this latest climatic episode confirms important flaws, likely to have consequences that go well beyond President Biden’s declarations that “the debate is closed on the existence of climate change”… or the U-turn by Governor DeSantis, who appeals for federal aid after voting as a congressman against similar support for hurricane victims Sandyexactly 10 years ago.
The accelerated urbanization of Southwest Florida, particularly in Lee County, where population growth is among the highest in the country, has come at the expense of the realities of a coastal area that is already subject to significant erosion. It took place all the more easily since no major hurricane had hit this area since Irma in 2017 and that the management of development plans has shifted over the last decade from the “Department of Community Affairs” to that of “Economic Opportunities” (the evolution is not only semantic).
This urbanization has also taken place in a context where the Florida insurance market is on the edge of a precipice. Due to the state’s vulnerability to natural disasters, the big players in the insurance market have withdrawn, leaving Florida in the hands of less solid insurance companies… However, several of them have put the key under the door in recent months, and 30 have been defined this summer as an unstable financial situation, with the risk that many policyholders face a form of insolvency. And this, especially since few people take out flood insurance (only 18% of Fort Myers residents have one, in particular).
This implies that many will not have the means to relocate. Nor the means to rebuild, in a market where supply chains are already erratic (there was a lack of cement in Florida this summer) and where the lack of labor is fueling inflation.
Food insecurity
But the problem goes beyond homes. Florida citrus growers are an important, if not essential, part of the Citrus Belt. They were hit hard by Ian — six years ago, the hurricane Irma caused a 37% drop in production; it looks like this year could fall short. Especially since some producers fear that the floods have favored the spread of “yellow dragon disease”, which is already seriously affecting production. With the corollary a significant increase in the price of orange juice, but also vegetable crops, such as watermelon or strawberries, which are also grown there. And, as a result, (another) price increase.
As a result, food insecurity is also a problem, while the effects of the hurricane Ian on supply chains combine with rising prices and the end of aid programs put in place in the specific context of the pandemic. Whether in the short term of disaster victims, or in the long term of economically vulnerable households. Already, before the hurricane, one in six Florida children did not have enough healthy food.
This food vulnerability is combined in the short and medium term with physical insecurity: some disaster victims now admit to carrying a weapon with them at all times for fear of being victims of looters. Research like that of Professors Ryan D. Harp and Kristopher B. Karnauskas already models the effect of climate change and concludes with an increasing crime rate in the United States.
Because they generate disasters that substantially, instantly and lastingly disrupt the social fabric (as shown by the demographic evolution of Louisiana after Katrina), climate change contributes to accentuating violence in societies. They do not spare the developed countries: post-graduate studiesKatrina showed the increase in violence against LGBTQ+ communities (some evoking divine punishment at the origin of the hurricane) and against women. To the point where the 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change talk about red alert.
In Florida, since the state is at the confluence of several climate threats (humidity, flooding, forest fires, rising waters, extreme heat, agricultural decline), as Propublica shows, the question of adaptation and mitigation of long-term climate change arises. But labor shortages, both state and federal, rising costs, and politics too — with Libertarians decrying state investment and commitment and 25 Republican senators voting against an aid budget for FEMA, the American emergency management agency — are all speed bumps that will ultimately contribute to fueling the phenomenon.
With the key repercussions across the United States … and to us.