The return to the forefront of the drama of the CHSLDs two weeks before the by-election in Marie-Victorin will have finally done a great service to the Legault government: it now knows that the population does not hold it too badly for the errors committed in the fight against COVID-19.
This does not change the grief of those whose loved ones were left to fend for themselves and died in appalling conditions or the lessons to be learned from this tragedy, but next October’s general election will not turn into a trial of the management of the pandemic.
The report that coroner Géhane Kamel will table by the summer will certainly be critical, but the voters of Marie-Victorin have clearly come to the conclusion that the government has done what it could under the circumstances and that another couldn’t have done better.
Consequently, the famous question to which the voters will have to answer during the vote of October 3 will be the one desired by Mr. Legault: who do they believe to be the most apt to occupy the post of Prime Minister, even if it were to possibly faced with a new crisis?
If only because of the habit of seeing him occupy this position, an outgoing prime minister initially enjoys a certain advantage over his adversaries, as if the habit made the monk. But rarely has this advantage seemed so significant.
It is tempting to see in the collapse of the PQ and, above all, of the PLQ, an illustration of the fate that threatens the “old parties” in a changing world, as confirmed by the results of the first round of the French presidential election.
However, one should be wary of generalizations. It cannot be said that the North American political landscape is characterized by a reconfiguration of this kind.
In reality, Quebec is rather an exception. For half a century, the PQ and the PLQ have been the protagonists of a debate that had no equivalent elsewhere in Canada or the United States, and which hardly interests voters anymore, for the moment of less.
Reinventing yourself overnight was a formidable challenge, requiring rare leadership qualities. Despite all their goodwill, it was obvious that neither Dominique Anglade nor Paul St-Pierre Plamondon possessed them to the required degree.
Neither can convince a majority of his own supporters that he is best qualified to serve as prime minister. According to the Léger poll in March, Mr. Legault is the first choice of 93% of CAQ voters, Éric Duhaime is that of 86% of Conservatives and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, of 63% of Solidarity. In the case of Dominique Anglade and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the figures are 45% and 31% respectively.
Under these conditions, it is less surprising that the PLQ lost in Marie-Victorin more than half of the votes it had obtained in the last general election. That Pierre Nantel managed to maintain the same percentage as in 2018, despite the low rating of his leader in the PQ electorate, testifies to the great esteem in which he is personally held.
The by-election in Marie-Victorin was of no consequence, insofar as it was not a question of determining which party would form the next government. But this will be the case on October 3, and the identity of the one that the population wishes to see at its head leaves little doubt.
Mme Anglade promises to better communicate his party’s message in the coming months. It is true that his many turns have made him somewhat confused, but the undertaking will be all the more difficult if it is the messenger herself who displeases.
The liberal leader is not at the end of her troubles. Last January, when she announced the creation of an online recruitment platform to find candidates, everyone understood that we were not jostling at the doors. The thaw that the PLQ took in Marie-Victorin will not improve things. A defeat is nothing dishonorable, but no one likes to be ridiculed.
In reality, many in the PLQ must rather begin to wonder who will want to replace Mme England. Already, she herself was elected by acclamation for lack of an opponent.
The future is not rosier at the PQ. Pierre Nantel was entitled to the honors of war, but the loss of Marie-Victorin looks more like a swan song than the prelude to any rebirth.
The difference is that a change of leader every two years has become the rule in the PQ, while the Liberals have never experienced such instability. They will in turn have to get used to black bread.