The new Leger surveyThe duty timely for Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who will be able to find arguments there to convince his European interlocutors that the Quebec independence project is not a matter of folklore. Whether in Edinburgh or Paris, one can easily imagine that people have lost interest in the subject over the last quarter of a century.
Certainly, it is not tomorrow the day before that a sovereigntist government will be able to hold a referendum, but it has been years since Léger has seen such high support (38%) for the yes vote. 10 years ago, when the PQ made a last stay in power, it was 37%.
Better still, nearly half (48%) of Francophones would vote for sovereignty, even though they have been told for years that this is a ruinous and retrograde project, which would also have the fault of being fueled by a very unhealthy desire for exclusion.
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon can legitimately claim his share of credit in this relative renaissance. Of the five party leaders, he gets the highest score when we weigh the opinion that voters have of him. While the PQ leaders have long been criticized for sweeping sovereignty under the rug, this is certainly not the case.
The bad news – and there is cause for concern – is that it is mainly based on those aged 55 and over (45%) and attracts much less 18-34 year olds (31%). In a more glorious time it was the reverse. If sovereigntist strategists once relied on the passage of time to achieve their goal, finding a way to seduce the younger generation is becoming an existential necessity.
This is also the problem of the PQ. If French-speaking Quebec is more than ever a desert for the PLQ, which only collects 4% of the voting intentions there, Liberals and PQ find themselves ex aequo 14% among 18-34 year olds. More than ever, they most identify with Québec solidaire.
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The fairly difficult weeks that the Legault government has gone through have left practically no traces. Even if, by the Prime Minister’s own admission, the results of the discussions on the Canada Health Transfer (CHT) were disappointing, Quebecers are relatively satisfied (48%).
Obviously, they don’t want to dig up the hatchet with Ottawa. It is true that Mr. Legault misses no opportunity to repeat that, all in all, federalism remains a good deal, despite inevitable frustrations.
In a letter he sent him at the beginning of the week, PSPP asked him to set up a special commission on the future of Quebec, on the model of the Bélanger-Campeau Commission, in order to obtain “a real report of force” in its negotiations with the federal government.
Helping him to extract concessions from Ottawa is undoubtedly the last thing the leader of the PQ wants. His goal is simply to break the silence surrounding sovereignty by reviving the old recipe for Hygrade sausages, which more people ate because they were fresher and vice versa.
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Even if he now presents himself as a defender of Canadian unity, Mr. Legault is not allergic to sovereignty, as Jean Charest or Philippe Couillard could be, but simply agrees to recognize that it constitutes an alternative possible would immediately revive the mistrust of those who had long suspected him of not having given up on his ideal of yesteryear.
Creating the commission demanded by the PQ leader would have the effect of resuscitating the polarization from which he managed to escape by creating the CAQ. Like the voters of QS, those of the CAQ are deeply divided on the political future of Quebec. It can only survive if the question is not asked.
Former Liberal minister Benoit Pelletier sees such a commission as a means of restoring to Quebecers “the taste for fighting for ideas, in particular for ideas that are in line with the interests of Quebec within Canada.”
In reality, Mr. Legault knows very well the demands formulated in his “New project for the nationalists of Quebec” will never be satisfied, but he made the bet that enough voters prefer to play the ostrich.
On the other hand, he probably sincerely believes that it is still possible to enrich Quebec within the current federal framework, in particular by betting on its energy potential, even if it means resuming the discussion on its political future later.
It will take a great deal of patience and tact to overcome the aversion that Quebec inspires in Newfoundlanders because of the Churchill Falls contract. The last thing they want is to tie their fate to a bunch of separatists just waiting to get rich enough to slip away.