Until the ban on the sale of new gasoline vehicles from 2035, the transition to zero emissions remains strongly influenced by the level of prices at the pump. As for the overall impact of this transition, much remains to be demonstrated.
A survey conducted for the manufacturer BMW by Maru/Blue of more than 1,200 Canadian licensed drivers across all provinces indicates that four out of five respondents are concerned about the level of gas prices and operation of their internal combustion vehicle that this entails. But they are 25% to consider buying an electric vehicle (EV) within two years.
The results of another survey published in June by the firm EY among people wishing to buy a car underlined that 46% of them looked on the side of EVs. That’s a peak and rise of 11 percentage points from 2021, which was more a reflection of soaring gasoline prices than a sudden environmental epiphany, and which was still below the global average of 52% . Respondents from British Columbia (54%) and Quebec (51%) expressed the most interest.
Environmental motivations also seemed to be subordinated to rising fuel prices. The main barrier to buying an EV was the initial price, for 66% of respondents in the 2021 EY survey. This reluctance was only mentioned by 38% of respondents last June. Many of them said they would be willing to pay more. Among them, 80% confirm that they are willing to pay a supplement, and nearly two-thirds of consumers would not mind paying up to 20% more, we were able to read.
But despite the good intentions, it emerged from the survey that there is still a lot to be done to put in place the required charging infrastructure. The capacity and speed of recharging as well as concerns about the range of EVs discourage buyers. There are also questions about the raw materials used in the manufacture of vehicles and the volume of batteries.
The Chinese example
Especially since the overall impact of this transition from gasoline to electric on the environmental footprint is still difficult to define. One can think of the lack of scientific consensus on the impact on the climate of the zero-emission vehicle when its entire life cycle, including recycling, is taken into account. The nature or origin of the battery power source cannot also be ignored.
Environmental specialist Will Dubitsky gives the example of the Chinese economy, which is heavily fueled by coal. He recalled on his site, Green Transition, that China is home to the largest vehicle market in the world – 1.7 times the US market. Sales of electric vehicles accounted for 30% of all new passenger vehicle sales in August. “If the growth rate seen to date continues, new vehicle sales in China will be 80% to 100% all-electric by 2025,” he wrote. But having said that, what do you think?
Heading for plastic
Will Dubitsky adds that the transport sector monopolizes 60% of world oil consumption and that road transport accounts for 80%. With the transition to electric vehicles becoming the “new normal”, the oil industry is being forced to realign. Recognizing the impacts of migrating to renewables and electric vehicles, the fossil fuel bigs are refocusing their investments in petrochemicals — plastics in particular — products that traditionally accounted for 10% of oil consumption.
The gas sector is also interested. Particularly that of shale, which suffers from a glut due to reduced costs. “Shale gas is becoming the preferred fossil fuel for producing plastics. Natural gas from fracking sources reduces feedstock cost by two-thirds,” Dubitsky writes.
The International Energy Agency predicts that plastic production will double by 2040 to represent the largest growth segment of the oil industry over the next decade, and reach half of the increase in demand for oil by mid-century, he points out.
The assessment by research and consulting firm Wood MacKenzie predicts growth of some 10 million tonnes per year in the petrochemical sector by 2050, fueled primarily by plastics and other related products. The transformation of ethane into ethylene is highly generating greenhouse gases, it is insisted, and this operation requires large quantities of water.
Moreover, the methods of advanced recycling of plastic waste pose a problem. At least, they have not yet succeeded in demonstrating that the process works. The US organization Natural Resources Defense Council has called advanced plastic recycling environmentally unfriendly. “Of the 30 advanced recycling facilities around the world, all are operating at a conservative level of production or have been shut down,” Will Dubitsky points out.