With government regulations and incentives helping, electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to dominate sales of all other powertrains by 2033, five years earlier than expected, EY has previously predicted. In Canada, we are far from the mark, 12 years from the deadline confining the sale of cars and light passenger trucks to zero-emission vehicles.
The total number of motor vehicles registered in Canada was 26.2 million in 2021, according to Statistics Canada. Of these, light vehicles accounted for nine out of ten motor vehicles and passenger cars remained the most common type. “Although 94.9% of all registered light-duty vehicles continue to be gasoline-powered in 2021, there were 303,073 hybrid electric vehicles, 152,685 battery electric vehicles and 95,896 plug-in hybrid vehicles registered,” the report said. federal agency. Here, Québec Roulez vert tells us that as of July 31, 2022, 151,687 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles were on the roads of Québec.
Price pressure
An unfavorable economic situation, however, adds lead. Anila Siraj, director of alternative fuels for the specialized site Kalibrate, sums it up well. Reducing the price of EVs to stimulate mainstream adoption remains a challenge, even with the arrival of new models that are less expensive to purchase. Moreover, with demand exceeding supply, this results in upward pressure on prices and increased wait times. No wonder that since 1er April 2022, the maximum threshold of the suggested retail price for a vehicle to be eligible for the Roulez vert program has increased from $60,000 to $65,000, an increase of more than 8% aimed at adjusting the program to the economic context current.
The soaring cost of living is also forcing budget trade-offs and cuts to the discretionary spending envelope. Added to this are the threats of the expected recession on employment, the inflation rate
causing an erosion of purchasing power and a sharp rise in interest rates. And while leased vehicles may come to represent the majority of transactions, “the dealer market also creates a trap for those looking for affordable EVs,” adds Anila Siraj. As leases expire, “even with more EVs returning, delays in new vehicle supply make used vehicles just as expensive, if not more so.”
And if the increase in the costs associated with internal combustion vehicles has become a sensitive variable with the rise in the price of gasoline, the questions, even the concerns, are still persistent about the implementation of the required charging infrastructures. , the capacity and speed of recharging, as well as the range of EVs. Add to this the distortions and disruptions in the supply chain, which multiply the delays and shortages, and the questions concerning the raw materials and the volume of the batteries, we have already written.
Strongly recycling
On this last point, the environmental specialist Will Dubitsky recalled on his Green Transition site that the World Bank assumes that the demand for critical battery-related minerals will increase by 500% by 2050. For lithium and graphite, the expansion of production could reach 4000%. Still, for the rest of this century, most of the world’s critical mineral needs can be met from mining resources in democratic countries and recycling 95% of battery contents, he points out. “Research indicates that with a large amount of recycled batteries, the supply of critical minerals will enable the electrification of global transport until 2100. This scenario would see electric vehicles representing 50% of lithium reserves and 55% of cobalt . »
Will Dubitsky adds that with the prices of mined lithium having increased by 80% in 2022, recycled materials offer economic and environmental advantages. “By 2040, optimizing recycling would reduce projected demand for mined lithium by 25%, cobalt and nickel by 35%, and copper by 55%. This pressure favoring recycling also comes from extraction practices that emit high levels of greenhouse gases or come from countries where questions of environmental and social responsibility are a problem. “The bad news is that much of the critical mining activity eludes environmental, human rights and/or other ethical issues. »
As for the environmental footprint of EVs, the environmental specialist takes up the conclusions of a report by the United States Union of Concerned Scientists covering the entire life cycle, from raw materials to battery recycling, which indicates that an EV has an impact on global warming 50% lower than that of an internal combustion vehicle, for similar use.
According to a 2022 Transport Environment study, an EV in Europe emits three times less CO2 than an internal combustion vehicle. In China and Poland, countries heavily dependent on coal for electricity, the advantage of an EV translates into 37% less CO2. In Sweden, where electricity comes almost entirely from clean sources, an EV emits 83% less.