Diplomatic coup de theater, Friday, in the Middle East… and beyond. Iran and Saudi Arabia have announced the restoration of their relations, which were completely broken in 2016 after the assault on the Saudi embassy in Tehran by an Iranian mob.
Important detail: the mediator is China… not the United States or a European country. It was in Beijing that Riyadh and Tehran signed a joint declaration that they “resume their diplomatic relations and will reopen their embassies in two months”.
Enemies, these two countries are passionately so. “United” for decades – before the formal break in 2016 – by mutual hatred and deep rivalries, they are the leaders of the two main branches of Islam.
Saudi Arabia is the beacon of Sunni Islam, a bastion of a radical version of Sharia law that has spread around the world. Main source of September 11, this militant Islam, in addition to terrorism, practices entryism in all latitudes. But this country was also the close ally of the United States in the Middle East – which is no longer true today.
Opposite: Shiite Iran, cradle of the Islamic Revolution of 1979, sworn enemy of the United States and Israel… but also of the Arab monarchies, whose decadence and imminent fall were proclaimed by the Tehran revolution.
Doctrinal enemies, but also geopolitics, on both shores of the Persian Gulf. In different theaters, these two powers supported rival factions that went so far as to wage war on each other.
One thinks of Yemen, or of Lebanon in the past (the Shiites of Hezbollah supported by Tehran). In Syria, the power of Bashar al-Assad has been maintained, in this decade of massacres (of which he is the author at 90%), thanks to Russian and Iranian accomplices. In the Syrian war, Gulf countries supported other factions.
Be careful not to give too much meaning to this (announced) restoration of diplomatic relations. One can have a very bad relationship (United States-USSR, for decades) while maintaining embassies. And we can officially restore relations while still hating each other.
In 2016, tensions were at their height. Saudi Arabia had just started its war in Yemen (with bombings against civilians), while the Iranians supported the rebellion of the Shiite Houthis. That same year, the repression of Saudi Shiites, followed by anti-Saudi riots in Tehran, was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
Why a recovery today? Tectonic plates change on different planes at once.
In the Middle East, the Gulf countries are revising their diplomacy by making contact with Israel and abandoning the Palestinians. And then the once indestructible US relationship with Saudi Arabia — at the cost, admittedly, of a ton of hypocrisy — soured.
The tragic illustration of this was the Jamal Khashoggi affair, in 2018, a state crime in Saudi Arabia, denounced by Washington. But the discomfort and the distance were already there. Oil is no longer central to the exchange; the Saudis can look elsewhere for their armaments.
This is where the China factor comes in: it is the other major geopolitical development illustrated by this episode.
After a methodical commercial, economic and political conquest of many regions of the world, Beijing now intends to impose itself on the world stage, and this, without geographical or subject restrictions. Today, therefore, the Middle East question has also… become a “Chinese question”!
For China, which wants to flex its muscles in all directions and publicize its alternative authoritarian model, this is a golden opportunity.
A China that — unlike the West — has no moods, no moral outbursts, no independent public opinion, and no questions to regimes that cut off the hands of thieves or assassinate their dissidents.
What could be better, as a smoking gun, than going to reconcile two ferocious authoritarian regimes, hereditary enemies, with perhaps, as a result, the settlement of the war in Yemen?
A real diplomatic success for Beijing, and the confirmation of a Beijing-Tehran axis (with possible extensions to Moscow). And then, what a slap for Washington and Jerusalem!
The United States is no longer “the grand arbiter” in the Middle East. In Washington, the spokesman for the National Security Council welcomed the agreement, but was skeptical: “It remains to be seen whether the Iranians will honor their signature. A legitimate question.
And in Israel, where Iran is the absolute demon, in daily headlines Ha’aretz : “A resounding failure for Netanyahu”.
François Brousseau is an international affairs columnist at Ici Radio-Canada. [email protected]