Washington, January 6, 2021 — Brasília, January 8, 2023.
The parallel is obvious and overwhelming. In the two giant countries of the Americas, governed by free elections and a system of division of powers, disappointed supporters of a fallen demagogue who has not accepted his defeat throw themselves on the assault of the physical symbols of democracy: Capitol in Washington, presidential palace and Chamber of Deputies in Brasília.
The decors are different, heavy neo-classicism in Washington, minimalist modernism in Brasília, echoing the great years 1955-1964. The costumes too, with some memorable clowns in the American episode, replaced yesterday by more banal t-shirts, in the yellow and green colors of Brazil, which the extreme right has resolutely appropriated.
All this is nevertheless serious. An active and rebellious minority, modest for direct mobilization (a few thousand people in both cases), but representative of a large fraction of society, refuses democratic codes, vomits up the political class and can only conceive of defeat as the cheating of an adversary who has become an enemy.
This fantasized cheating in turn authorizes the use of physical assault and violence, and even the call for a military putsch (explicit yesterday on huge placards in Brasília). With, in the background, the shadow of a charismatic, supposedly all-powerful capo.
“They are fascists,” said former-new President Lula, back for a week (but absent yesterday Sunday) in this Planalto palace where he had already spent eight years of his life at the beginning of the century. A palace that he found “ravaged” (in the words of his wife).
Ravaged in the figurative sense, by four years of extremism, incompetence and political gall… but also in the literal sense, since the Bolsonaro family, by moving, would have taken some beautiful pieces with it.
We will add to this assessment, after the day yesterday, the vandalism of the demonstrators in the enclosures of the parliament and the presidency. However, by early evening, the level of violence in Brasília did not appear to have reached that of 2021 in Washington, where seven people had lost their lives (none in Brasília).
The two events differ on a host of details. Donald Trump was nearby, was always mobilized, during the “interregnum”, to try to save his lost presidency. He had directly called on his supporters to demonstrate and storm the Capitol. The assault took place even as lawmakers were in the process of formalizing the transfer of power to Joe Biden.
In Brasília, these events occur a week after Lula actually seized power – a much simpler procedure in Brazil than in the United States, where the Byzantine and archaic electoral system offers many more possibilities for manipulation and embezzlement. The demonstrators are not “remotely controlled” as those in Washington were able to be. Unlike Trump, Bolsonaro offered no more than rhetorical resistance after his defeat.
The former Brazilian president is said to be very affected, even depressed. He left to sulk abroad… in Florida, where one can imagine an audience with the most famous inhabitant of the place: his idol and model Donald Trump!
Will they plot together to further undermine democracy in their respective huge countries? Basically, it doesn’t matter: they have already sown their seeds well; their movements continue in other forms, with or without them. Even in defeat, they won 47% (Trump 2020) and 49% (Bolsonaro 2022) of the votes cast, respectively.
In the United States, despite the relative Republican setbacks in the 2022 legislative elections and the incredible spectacle, last week, of the chaotic election of the Speaker of the House, the Republicans had on November 8 last… 50.6% of the votes cast , against 47.8% for the Democrats. And in Brazil, after the October elections, the friends of Jair Bolsonarov will dominate the Chamber of Deputies, the Senate and many regions.
All of this will give Lula da Silva — like Joe Biden — a lot of work to do, with huge pitfalls.
Faced with a very strong right-wing opposition, which includes pro-coup sympathizers, he will have to defend a political system attacked from all sides, assimilated to the elites and corruption, and restore confidence in the institutions.
Lula is also eagerly awaited on two crucial issues. It must act against the inequalities that have skyrocketed in recent years. As of New Year’s Day, he signed a decree guaranteeing that 21 million families will continue to receive a monthly payment of 600 reals (150 Canadian dollars), under the original name of Bolsa Família, which Bolsonaro had renamed because it was a ‘brand’ associated with the Workers’ Party (PT). In his inaugural address, he declared that “it is neither right nor correct to ask patience from those who are hungry”.
The other crucial file is that of the climate crisis. Lula knows that Brazil has a decisive role to play on this front. He also knows that abroad, he will be judged according to this criterion. He entrusted environmental policy to Marina Silva, 64, the same woman who, 20 years ago, had brought down deforestation in the Amazon. Will she be able, with Lula, to repeat her feat in the 2020s?
François Brousseau is an international business analyst at Ici Radio-Canada. [email protected]