“It is far too early to talk about the succession,” said Premier François Legault at the end of the parliamentary session, ensuring that he wanted to remain in office for a long time.
Whatever his true intentions, he will certainly not open up to journalists or his deputies. The minute he begins to think out loud about his future, the race for his succession will begin. Even if, in his heart of hearts, he had decided not to seek a third term, it would be too early to tell.
Moreover, the next generation seems to be in rather bad shape these days. The star of those whose name came up most often during the first mandate, Geneviève Guilbault and Simon Jolin-Barrette, has considerably faded. Both have had their fair share of difficulties in recent months.
They can take comfort in the thought that Bernard Drainville, in whom everyone immediately saw a new contender for the throne when he announced his return to politics, had an even more disastrous session.
It is true that politics is not a garden of roses, and there are no shortage of examples of party leaders who have experienced bad times before reaching the top, whether in power or in the opposition. Adversity is formative, and it is better to get used to it. The PLQ would also be very happy to be able to count on such a succession.
One can nevertheless wonder if the CAQ would not have interest, too, to look outside. Among the candidates mentioned above, it is hard to see who would be able to maintain the very close relationship that Mr. Legault has managed to establish with Quebecers and to perpetuate the coalition of which the CAQ is intended to be the expression.
Some have long believed that the ideal candidate would be former ADQ leader Mario Dumont, whose popularity continues unabated nearly fifteen years after leaving politics, when he found himself in what looked like a dead end.
He may declare to anyone who will listen that his media career fully satisfies him and that he has no desire to plunge back into the furnace of politics, it is difficult to believe that a man who had the ambition to to become prime minister could turn down such a great opportunity.
Mr. Dumont seems to have worked his way to independence over the years, but many thought the same of Robert Bourassa after the failure of the Meech Lake Accord, even though he himself never seriously considered joining. embark on this path, rather letting each other imagine what they liked.
The most dangerous adversary of the CAQ over the next few years will probably be the PQ. A majority of CAQ voters remain federalists, but 39% would vote yes to a possible referendum on sovereignty, according to the latest Léger poll. This is a clientele that will have to be retained without too much frightening those whom a genuine nationalism is enough to satisfy. Mr. Dumont would no doubt be capable of it.
Unless defeat seems likely or he is experiencing health problems, an incumbent prime minister is generally inclined to want to stay. If no one is irreplaceable, it is easy to convince yourself that you are more so than others.
Mr. Legault appears to be in good shape and he has no political reason to consider retirement, other than the prospect of having to fight another election campaign. He obviously found that of last fall trying, particularly the televised debates against the young wolves of QS and the PQ.
The Léger survey allows him to believe that he still has a bright future ahead of him. After such a difficult session, he himself must have been a little surprised that the satisfaction rate with his government and his personal popularity did not suffer. Even PQ voters say they are mostly (51%) satisfied.
Certainly, many things will happen between now and the next election. With a slightly lower satisfaction rate, Bernard Landry lost that of 2003. It is true that the opposition was much less divided. QS has practically filled up the votes it could extract from the Liberals in Montreal and the PQ can’t expect anything from this side.
While it is true that the latter rose from 6 to 71 deputies in 1976, such a dazzling progression remains the exception. Although the Quebec region has become more problematic for the CAQ since the abandonment of the third link, the possible losses could be limited to a few ridings in Chaudière-Appalaches.
Moreover, if his departure were to facilitate the return to power of his former party, which he would have liked to see disappear, Mr. Legault would no doubt see it as a good reason to stay. In short, the next generation caquiste may still have to wait.
This column is on hiatus and will return in September. Have a nice summer everyone.