Franceinfo would like to point out that a poll is not a prediction, but a photograph of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the more the margin of error increases. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.
“Christiane Taubira is not identified with political proposals, with a political project”, reacts the deputy France Insoumise of Seine-Saint-Denis Clémentine Autain on Saturday January 8 on franceinfo. According to an Ipsos Sopra-Steria poll for Le Parisien and franceinfo published the day before, Christiane Taubira does not break through in the polls, with 3% of voting intentions in the first round. “She is a popular personality, because she embodies something through her identity, her verve, so there can be sympathy. But there is a lot of vagueness about her political proposals,” says Clémentine Autain.
According to our poll, Emmanuel Macron would come far ahead of the first round of the presidential election if the first round took place next Sunday, in front of the National Rally candidate Marine Le Pen and that of the Republicans Valérie Pécresse, neck and neck. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the candidate of France Insoumise, is credited with 9%.
“In all the polls, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is at the head of the candidates of the left”, notes Clémentine Autain. “We have a more structural problem, it is that the left is globally weak. One of the reasons for this weakness is the Holland five-year term which contributed to the collapse of the Socialist Party.”
“We have work to do to build a left that speaks again to this electorate who has turned away from the left.”
Clémentine Autain, deputy for France Insoumiseto franceinfo
Clémentine Autain believes that the moment of “big bang of the social and environmental left” was “the day after the European elections”, in 2019. “We are less than 100 days from the presidential election”, she recalls. “It’s too short. The rallying in the first round of all the left forces is now a pipe dream.”
* Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and “Le Parisien / Today in France”, carried out from January 5 to 6, 2022 on a sample of 1,500 people registered on the electoral roll, representative of the French population aged 18 and over. more.