The Taliban regime is now a hundred days old and, like that of Napoleon in 1815, seems close to “hitting its Waterloo”. The humanitarian catastrophe already present and which threatens to exacerbate itself even more as well as its inability to curb the violence of the Islamic State (IS) group could well sow the seeds of its collapse in the medium term with all the consequences that this would cause in this region. infested with terrorist groups.
A humanitarian crisis
Described as a “desperate situation” by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, the humanitarian crisis that already affected millions of Afghans before the Taliban took power last August has now worsened to such an extent that ‘it is now in danger of degenerating into full-scale famine. This situation has given rise to terrible scenes in recent weeks, with Afghans desperate to survive, including the high-profile and chilling sale of a 9-year-old girl to a man in his fifties for less. $ 3000: the only means available to the father, who did not hide his shame, to ensure the survival of the rest of his family.
Obviously, the recent political transition plays a big role in this situation, insofar as if the Taliban have been able to show themselves skilful warriors, they have nevertheless shown their inability to revive an already faltering economy. That said, we also have to admit that the international community has some responsibility for the worsening of the situation. The fact that the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have suspended aid while Washington froze the Afghan Central Bank reserves held in Washington are measures which only further suffocate a dying economy resulting in humanitarian catastrophe. current and even more serious that looms on the horizon.
Already fearful when the Taliban came to power, millions of Afghans risk, more or less quickly, strengthening their opposition to the new masters of Kabul and relaunching a struggle for power between the different factions present in the country. within the country. Very clever is the one who could predict who will emerge victorious from this civil war, but the strength of the Islamic State group does not allow us to exclude that such a scenario would at least allow it to take control of certain cities and regions, which would provide a territorial base from which its members could launch larger offensives in the country and elsewhere.
The strength of the EI group
While it was difficult to accurately estimate the strength of the Islamic State group as the last US troops left the country, the past three months have shown that the Taliban faced a large, well-armed and extremely well-organized group. Responsible for nearly 200 attacks of all kinds since the end of August, the Islamic State group has shown in recent days its ability to strike symbolic targets.
The attack perpetrated at the beginning of the month in the hospital in Kabul and which left more than 25 dead was not insignificant by the choice of the target and those who were there. Indeed, the day before, the Taliban leader had visited the place, and a senior officer of Battalion 313 – the elite unit of the regime, whose members proudly paraded in uniform and with weapons left by the Americans – a was killed during the attack, which suggests that it sought to target an important member of the new regime in order to terrorize the rest of its representatives: a classic guerrilla tactic which has already demonstrated its effectiveness elsewhere and which is based on a solid organization.
The next step?
Faced with this explosive situation, the West will have to wonder about the next step. If its actions at present are limited to repatriating those who worked for the coalition forces, the West will sooner or later have to accept the inevitable, namely to provide aid to its enemies of yesterday who have failed in their promises to respect human rights in order to prevent the situation in the country from further humanitarian disaggregation and leading to the territorialization of a terrorist group. Choosing between plague and cholera is the option before us: a perspective that admirably sums up the essence of realpolitik.