A few days before the presidential election in Taiwan, the proliferation of Chinese balloons in the island’s sky is, according to the army, part of a “psychological war” led by Beijing to try to influence the vote, a weapon however considered double-edged.
Beijing regularly deploys its military force by sending fighter planes, reconnaissance drones and warships around the island, whose sovereignty it disputes.
Since December, around twenty mysterious balloons have also crossed the Taiwan Strait which separates the island from mainland China, according to the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense, which sees this as a so-called “gray zone” harassment intended to “affect the morale of our people.
This type of tactic refers to aggressive actions deployed by a state without declaring open war. “Beijing means that it can violate Taiwanese airspace and call into question its sovereignty,” said Raymond Kuo, Taiwan expert at the American institute Rand Corporation.
China, which considers Taiwan an integral part of its territory, has vowed to one day bring the island back into its fold, and has not ruled out using force.
The presidential election on January 13 will pit current Vice-President Lai Ching-te, of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), defender of the island’s sovereignty, against two candidates favoring a rapprochement with China.
“Manipulate elections”
The timing chosen for the appearance of the balloons is “political”, Mr. Kuo told AFP. “The CCP [Parti communiste chinois] attempts to demoralize the Taiwanese public in the run-up to the presidential and legislative elections,” said the expert, according to whom “Beijing adds a new operational challenge to the Taiwanese military forces” intended to test them.
The Taipei Defense Ministry denounced on Saturday an “attempt to use psychological warfare to affect the morale of our people”, also describing the balloons as a “serious threat” to air links. When asked about this, the Chinese Defense Ministry rejected any accusation of interference and accused Taiwan of trying to “manipulate the elections”.
The balloons from China became a politically sensitive issue last year after the United States shot down one of the aircraft, which it called a “spy”, after it entered its airspace.
Beijing, for its part, claimed that it was a civilian airship that had deviated from its trajectory.
Since December, more than 20 balloons have crossed the median line that separates the self-ruled island from mainland China, and at least seven of them have flown over the island.
According to the Taipei Defense Ministry, they travel at altitudes between 12,000 and 36,000 feet (3.6 and 11 kilometers) and are detected day and night.
“Irresponsible”
According to Gerry Soejatman, an independent aeronautics expert, they “represent a threat” because they “risk disrupting air traffic”, with commercial planes generally flying at an altitude of 24,000 to 40,000 feet (7.3 to 12 kilometers).
Describing the sending of balloons to such altitudes as “irresponsible”, defense expert Su Tzu-yun believes that “the political objective is much more important than the military objective”.
Beijing “wants to arouse doubts and concern […] in order to change the attitude of the Taiwanese people in the context of the elections,” he told AFP.
According to James Char, a China specialist at the Singapore Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, Beijing had already carried out missile tests near Taiwan in 1996 to intimidate voters and dissuade them from re-electing nationalist President Lee. Teng-hui.
“It backfired on them,” he said. This pushed the Taiwanese to vote in favor [d’un président] not pro-Beijing and not in favor of unification.”
For Ivy Kwek of the International Crisis Group, “the more Beijing uses coercion against Taiwan, the less effective these actions will be in frightening the Taiwanese.”
Supporters of presidential favorite Lai Ching-te say they are not afraid. “China often tries to intimidate Taiwan, but we Taiwanese are not easily frightened,” says Mme Zheng, 62 years old.