China has once again closed the Paralympic Games with a first place in the medal standings, light years ahead of Great Britain, which occupies second place. It came a good second at the Olympic Games. Is there a Chinese sports model? In any case, on the economic, social and political levels, there is a Chinese model that is proving increasingly attractive to a large number of countries, mainly in Africa and Asia.
Every three years, China hosts the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing. The ninth has just ended, and it brought together a record number of 53 participating countries out of 54 African states, with only Eswatini, formerly Swaziland, continuing to maintain relations with Taiwan. The heads of state were there, especially since they were treated like real stars by President Xi Jinping.
Over the past 25 years, China has developed a special relationship with the African continent despite tensions over trade deficits and debts accumulated by Africans with China. Chinese leaders continue to crisscross the continent, and President Xi received 20 heads of state in 2023.
The recipe for such success is simple. China has taken up the concept of the France-Africa summits instituted by Paris in 1973. However, it does not impose any political conditionality on its bilateral relations, other than respect for the principles of the United Nations Charter. And it works. It has become Africa’s leading trading partner, and its infrastructure projects under the Silk Road program are popular. The only downside, according to Xavier Aurégan, author of the very recent China, African power“there are no major Chinese direct investments that would develop territories and the local economy.” But “there are none from Westerners either,” he said in an interview with the newspaper The World. So, all things considered, China is a good choice for Africa.
However, after an enthusiastic start, Africans have learned to think twice before deepening their relations with China, particularly to avoid increasing their debt. They have learned to diversify their relations, as today, about ten countries are organizing Africa summits. The latest to join the group was South Korea this summer. Canada, however, is nowhere to be seen.
China is well established in Africa and has nothing to fear from other major powers on this continent. In Asia, where the future of the world is being played out, it is gaining ground every day to the detriment of the United States and the Western bloc. However, US President Joe Biden has made considerable efforts to strengthen alliances in the Indo-Pacific region in order to establish a network aimed at encircling China. In particular, he has deepened military relations with Australia, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. He even visited Vietnam to consolidate ties with this communist dictatorship.
An intense rivalry
Yet regional elites remain reluctant to blindly follow Washington in its confrontation with Beijing. The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore has just released its annual survey of elite perceptions of regional and international issues among the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This year, the survey revealed a shift in respondents’ views on the China-US rivalry. When asked which of the two strategic rivals ASEAN should choose if it were forced to align with one or the other, respondents opted 50.5% for China and 49.5% for the US. Last year, the ratio was the opposite: 39% for China and 61% for the US.
A poll is a snapshot at a particular moment, and the gap between the two countries remains small. However, the country-by-country results are worrying for the United States. Malaysia, one of the few democracies in ASEAN, is a good example: 75% of Malaysians choose China, compared to 55% last year. This country, which maintains excellent relations with Washington, practices multi-alignment and does not hesitate to show it. Its prime minister was also one of Vladimir Putin’s guests of honor a few days ago at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.
And just because Vietnam is moving closer to the United States or Cambodia’s new prime minister is a West Point graduate doesn’t mean that these countries will drift away from China. On the contrary, both have announced a deepening of their strategic relations with Beijing.
The United States has no intention of giving up its hegemonic position in the world. China, for its part, will not be downgraded. The two countries are engaged in an intense rivalry, and in this great game, each has its allies and its adversaries. The Global South has become one of the battlefields. For now, China is widening its advantage there.