“I think China will hesitate before invading Taiwan, but it is trying to give itself the means to show that it is capable of it”reacts on Saturday April 8 on franceinfo Dominique Moïsi, geopolitical scientist, special adviser at the Institut Montaigne, specialist in international relations, while China has launched military maneuvers “total encirclement” from Taiwan. These exercises come in response to a meeting in the United States between the Taiwanese president, Tsai Ing-wen, and the speaker of the American House of Representatives. Attacking Taiwan, “It would be a casus belli for Washington. I think China will hesitate before invading Taiwan”according to Dominique Moïsi.
franceinfo. Is China implementing in Taiwan what Russia managed to do in Ukraine?
Dominique Moisi. It’s a difficult question, but I don’t think, I don’t think the Chinese are about to invade Taiwan. We can even think that the somewhat bitter Russian experience dampened Chinese enthusiasm. There is a Chinese tradition that when she feels symbolically attacked, she reacts with military maneuvers. They were even more important the day after the visit of Nancy Pelosi, who was then Speaker of the House of Representatives. This time, it was the president of Taiwan who traveled to the United States. The insult is great but perceived as a little less great than the other way around.
Does China have the means to invade Taiwan?
There is disagreement among experts on this issue. Taiwan is an island. It’s harder to invade than Ukraine for Russia. Taiwan is directly supported by the United States, which is committed to Taiwan. It would be a casus belli for Washington. I think China will hesitate before invading Taiwan, but it is trying to give itself the means to show that it is capable of it. A priori it is not for tomorrow. Experts say if Taiwan doesn’t return to Chinese rule before 2049 for the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, they will make a military effort. Others say that the real date is around 2030. We are not in an immediate attack scenario, which seems by far the least likely.
We heard the relatively reassuring speeches of Xi Jinping in front of Emmanuel Macron on Friday April 7 which did not at all suggest such military maneuvers?
In the mind of Xi Jinping, there is what he says to the French president and there is what he does in response to the action of the United States and one can think that in the mind of Xi Jinping , Washington is more important than Paris. He receives the French president, it is important for him, especially on an economic level, but all the same the Chinese obsession is America.
We talk a lot about the double discourse of Chinese power, but also for Russia. What does that say about China?
There is, it seems to me, more finesse on the Chinese side than on the Russian side. More caution also on the Chinese side than on the Russian side and in the end, much more real power on the Chinese side than on the Russian side. There is still this sense of long time in China. “We are destined to become the world’s leading power again, so we are not going to risk this on a whim.” There are certainly very great similarities between the two authoritarian regimes, China and Russia, but even more significant differences.