China welcomes African leaders with pomp, to whom it intends to lend less

Several dozen African heads of state and government are taking part in the China/Africa summit from September 4 to 6. The Middle Kingdom is expected to strengthen its presence on the continent by signing new agreements and new loans.

China is obviously already very present on the African continent, but is expected to further strengthen its presence. However, China’s Africa policy is evolving and is no longer the same as it used to be.

Since the early 2010s, China has poured tens of billions of dollars into Africa. From Angola to Djibouti, via the DRC and Kenya: 100,000 kilometers of roads and highways have been built as well as 10,000 kilometers of railways, hundreds of ports and hydroelectric power plants. These megaprojects have been financed by massive loans to Africa.

Times have changed and today, China no longer really has the means to spend without counting. The Chinese economy has been experiencing a period of slowdown since Covid and in these conditions, the communist regime cannot afford to take reckless financial risks.

We will have to wait until the end of the summit to see the amount of new loans that will be granted this year, but the level will be very far from what was announced for example in 2016, with nearly 30 billion dollars of loans for Africa. In 2023, there were 4.6 billion loans offered by Beijing.

In 2023, during the New Silk Roads forum in Beijing, the Chinese gave a foretaste by announcing that they now wanted to give priority to smaller projects that were less financially risky and more environmentally friendly.

China wants to finance projects focused on direct aid to populations with more programs, for example to fight poverty. Often criticized for its control over Africa, Beijing hopes to improve its image and also avoid accusations of African countries’ indebtedness to China.

The communist regime no longer wants to be accused of causing the financial failure of certain countries. In this context, the old model of loans signed directly with states is over and the Chinese prefer to work directly with commercial banks, as intermediaries. The projects will, certainly, be less grandiose, but potentially more profitable.

China’s presence will therefore be, perhaps more discreet, but with the firm determination to remain engaged in Africa. Faced with the United States, China intends to maintain and strengthen its economic and political influence.