Everything was going well for Chinese President Xi Jinping until October 2022. Like an emperor believing himself to be invested with the mandate of heaven, Xi allowed himself to flout rules and conventions and granted himself a third five-year term at the head of the country.
Xi then presented himself in full control, dominating the political apparatus, tightening controls on the economy and society, and imposing one of the most draconian zero-COVID policies in the world. It ordered frequent mandatory testing, ubiquitous surveillance, large-scale lockdowns, and sometimes quarantines away from families in inhospitable places.
Reality caught up with the imperial leader abruptly, exposing the limits as well as the flaws of his exercise of power and his authoritarian regime.
We had been able to observe for a while the rigidity of the Chinese system of governance, locked in an ideological yoke and fueled by a cult of personality that we had not seen since the Cultural Revolution.
The zero COVID policy having proved a relative success for a while, it had been erected almost to the status of dogma, embodied by the very person of President Xi. But, for quite a while, it has no longer been relevant in the face of the evolution of the pandemic, in particular the arrival of the Omicron variant, which is more contagious and less dangerous. China has pursued this policy for too long, with a deleterious effect on the economy and people’s living conditions. The Chinese population, not having the opportunity to express themselves freely, has therefore expressed its dissatisfaction through spontaneous demonstrations in several regions of the country, a first affront to Xi.
180 degree turn
What’s more, without admitting to having taken a wrong turn, Xi and the Communist Party had to back down, losing face by making a 180-degree turn. We have thus gone from an approach where the government was excessively controlling to a laissez-faire approach where the government goes so far as to affirm that everyone is responsible for their own health. In practice, there are almost no measures left to limit the spread of the virus.
To add incompetence to the picture, unlike many countries have done to prepare for living with COVID, the Chinese government has not planned to transition to this new approach. Thus, the vaccination rate of the elderly or vulnerable population is not high enough, Chinese vaccines not being as effective as mRNA vaccines used elsewhere in the world; screening tests are difficult to obtain and there is a shortage of drugs. The number of cases is exploding, hospitals are overwhelmed as, sadly, are crematoriums. And on this eve of the Chinese New Year, hundreds of millions of trips will promote the spread of the virus.
PHOTO HECTOR RETAMAL, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Tongren Hospital in Shanghai on January 3
The Chinese population is taken by surprise, almost left to fend for itself in the face of the disease. His confidence in the ability of the authorities to ensure security and prosperity, the current basis of the Party’s legitimacy, has been shaken. These same authorities are themselves undermining their own credibility with outlandish statistics about the number of cases and deaths. The image of infallibility that President Xi liked to project is tainted.
Certainly, President Xi and the Communist Party are not about to lose their grip on power. But the sky above them darkened.
Then, because of the number of cases and especially the lack of transparency of the Chinese authorities, moreover denounced by the World Health Organization, several countries like Canada have imposed screening tests on travelers from China. Additional humiliation for Xi. China is offended, denouncing a “political maneuver” and threatening to take countermeasures. Inconsistent reaction, as China had until recently imposed much stricter measures on any traveler arriving in China, including quarantine, and still maintains the requirement of a screening test for all travelers to it . Since the Chinese regime cannot admit its wrongs and tolerate criticism, one might as well play the nationalist card and vilify the foreigner.
We know that China is capable of aggressive diplomacy. But in this case it is not in a strong position. What countermeasures of a health nature could it take without penalizing itself? Close its borders again when it has just reopened them in its own interest? As for economic retaliatory measures, can China afford to limit its trade with both the United States, Europe, Japan and so many others as it tries to revive its own economy? The IMF recently pointed out that for the first time in 40 years, China’s growth rate may be oscillating below the world average.
The Chinese government seems distraught by a situation that is beyond its control and alienates it from its pretensions and ambitions. Even the propaganda apparatus struggles to identify the party line. Not long ago, President Xi was boasting that his country’s success in the fight against COVID illustrated the superiority of the Chinese system. Today, quite the opposite is happening – in full view of the Chinese population and the international community.