China | A nuclear testing site is reborn on the sly

In the remote desert where China detonated its first atomic bomb nearly 60 years ago, a drill recently drilled a vertical well estimated to be at least half a kilometer deep. It is the clearest evidence yet that Beijing is considering testing a new generation of nuclear weapons that could increase the lethality of its rapidly expanding missile force.

For years, U.S. government reports and independent experts have expressed vague concerns about the former Lop Nur base. Reports point to possible preparations for year-round operations and a “lack of transparency.”

Today, however, satellite images reveal that the military base has new boreholes – ideal for containing deadly radiation firestorms from large nuclear explosions – as well as hundreds of other improvements and expansions.

“All indications are that China is preparing to resume nuclear testing,” said Tong Zhao, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Siegfried S. Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos Weapons Laboratory in New Mexico, called the reconstruction of Lop Nur unusual.

Analysts say the activities at Lop Nur are a sign of a vast modernization of China’s nuclear apparatus and warn of the risk of triggering a new era of atomic rivalry.

They add that moves by China, as well as other nuclear powers, could undermine the global testing ban that began in 1996. The world’s atomic powers signed it after the Cold War to curb a costly nuclear arms race.

Concerns

The new evidence about Lop Nur was discovered by Renny Babiarz, a former analyst with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, a branch of the Pentagon. A specialist in satellite reconnaissance and Beijing’s nuclear program, Babiarz says detonations in the deep vertical shafts could accelerate the development of new types of nuclear weapons for the country’s rapidly growing arsenal. . Independent experts who have reviewed Mr. Babiarz’s satellite images and analyzes share his concerns.

Lop Nur’s activity comes at one of the most delicate moments in relations between the United States and China. President Joe Biden has said he is trying to “stabilize” increasingly divisive relations, and in a summit meeting last month with Xi Jinping, China’s leader, he sought some degree of ‘agreement.

U.S. intelligence agencies say they have been tracking Lop Nur’s revival for years. According to them, if the construction is obvious, its objective is not. China could prepare a nuclear test, they concede. But they add that Mr. Xi may not intend to move forward unless the United States or Russia does so first. Officials say Mr. Xi could hedge his risks, drilling the wells so that, if necessary, China could act quickly.

On Monday, China’s Foreign Ministry responded to questions about the upgrades at Lop Nur by dismissing them in a statement as “attempts to cling to shadows, baselessly brandishing a ‘China nuclear threat’.” . He called the claims “completely irresponsible.”

The Ministry also underlined Beijing’s commitment to respecting the ban on nuclear tests. China, he said, will spare “no effort to realize the noble aspiration of the complete ban and total eradication of nuclear weapons.”

Lop Nur is a sprawling military base, the size of Virginia, located in the arid Xinjiang region in far western China. The Chinese say the area was chosen for nuclear testing because it was barren and isolated, with no permanent residents. But the Xinjiang region is inhabited by Uyghurs, a predominantly Muslim ethnic group who have recently been subject to mass detentions and repeated security checks.

Uyghurs have long protested health risks from nuclear testing at the site, which began in 1964 after Mao Zedong decided to build the bomb. The first tests were crowned by mushroom clouds and radioactive fallout. China carried out its first underground nuclear test in 1969.

Horizontal and vertical wells

Initially, China used shallow horizontal tunnels. It has been relatively slow to drill vertical wells deep enough to reliably contain deadly radiation, especially for large explosions. The first test in a well of this type took place in 1978.

After the Cold War, the Lop Nur test site ended its large explosions and became an altogether isolated place.

This situation began to change after 2012, when Mr. Xi came to power. The Chinese leader saw the Missile Force, which he created at the end of 2015, as one of his glories. This elite organization, guardian of Chinese nuclear weapons, embodies the ambitions of Mr. Xi, who wishes to make his country a great power ready to stand up to the United States.

It turns out that Mr. Xi’s political rise coincided with Lop Nur’s rebirth.

Nuclear experts say they see no signs of a Chinese test imminent and that Beijing may do nothing. Rebuilding the military base could simply be a warning to the West, they say. This is also what Chinese experts have suggested.

Other analysts disagree, saying that China’s fleets of new bombers, submarines and missile silos signal a desire to acquire new weapons.

According to Pentagon projections, China could have 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 at the current rate of expansion of its forces. This figure would represent a five-fold increase in the “minimum deterrence” that China has had for more than half a century.

U.S. experts say Chinese scientists are planning the particular weapons they see as best suited for this expansion and could learn a lot from test explosions.

Miniaturization objective

What China wants above all, according to experts, is miniaturization. With new, more precise missiles capable of locating targets, its scientists can reduce the power, size and cost of warheads.

Experts say miniaturization could make China’s underwater missiles more deadly. It could also help China develop hypersonic warheads that would zigzag to evade U.S. defenses.

American experts consider the modernization of Lop Nur as a sign of the Chinese desire to go further.

“We have to realize that they had a conservative position,” said Terry C. Wallace, a former Los Alamos director who has long studied China’s nuclear testing program. “It’s changing. »

This article was originally published in the New York Times.