This text is taken from Courrier de l’économie. Click here to subscribe.
What if ChatGPT was the next iPhone? Apple’s international launch of the iPhone in 2008 marked a turning point for the global economy. IT mobility has created a market whose value over the past fifteen years has ballooned by hundreds of billions of dollars. Artificial intelligence could do the same for years to come.
Goldman Sachs predicts: Over the next ten years, AI systems like ChatGPT could add US$6.65 trillion in net worth to global GDP. The American bank specifically targets in its projections so-called “generative” AI systems, which are capable of generating text and information in the context of a conversation with one or more users.
It is a question of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, therefore, but also of Bard (Google) and other similar systems which will undoubtedly see the light of day in the near future.
In the process, Goldman Sachs warns that 300 million jobs in the world are threatened with disappearance. In North America, about two in three workers (63%) from all walks of life will see their schedule cut significantly by the introduction of AI tools into their productivity arsenal. Goldman Sachs predicts that up to half of these employees’ daily tasks can be automated, giving them more time to spend on other things.
Increased wealth gaps
The emergence of the iPhone and mobile technologies has caused an increase in global wealth, but it is evident today that this added value has been distributed unevenly. The wealthiest people in the wealthiest countries got richer at a much faster rate than the less wealthy people.
Everyone, including Apple, has since tried to create “the next iPhone”, a new technological platform that would have the same economic and social impact as smartphones: cryptocurrency and NFT, virtual or augmented reality, etc.
It cannot be said that these technologies have fulfilled this promise. This time, it would be wise to prepare for it. The craze caused by AIs like ChatGPT for three months is very similar to that which occurred when the iPhone 3G was born: people who normally show no interest in the technology feel challenged again.
The possibility of creating significant wealth is therefore there, concludes Goldman Sachs. The resulting shock effect in many industries tends to confirm that it is more than a flash in the pan.
It is realistic to imagine that there will be a widening of the gap separating the workers who will lose all or part of their livelihood from their bosses, who will probably put more of it in their pockets. It is not for nothing that researchers and industrialists are sounding the planetary alarm: for the rare time that it is possible to anticipate change, it would be wise to plan it so that it benefits the greatest possible number.