The disqualification of Patrick Brown in the race for the Conservative leadership will force Jean Charest to multiply his efforts to become the first choice of those who reserved their support for the ousted candidate, believe former Conservative strategists.
The task will not be easy for the former premier of Quebec, predicts the vice-president of the consulting firm TACT, Yan Plante. ” [Il] needed a Patrick Brown, who was becoming more and more his cheerleading in chief for the next few weeks and who was telling his voters more and more clearly to vote for Jean Charest as their second choice,” said in an interview with The Canadian Press, the man who was the chief of staff of former Conservative minister Denis Lebel.
Mr. Plante believes that the turnaround in the situation complicates the situation for Mr. Charest, who will have to go directly to meet Mr. Brown’s supporters to convince them to give him their votes. “It makes the task even more complex because, […] in all the paths that are mathematically possible for Mr. Charest, there is no leeway. Everything must fall into place perfectly for him to have a slim chance of winning, while Mr. [Pierre] Poilievre has a little more wiggle room in each [des] scenarios. »
For Mr. Plante as for other observers, it is clear that members recruited by Patrick Brown will ultimately decide not to vote. The disqualified aspiring chef claims to have sold 150,000 membership cards. “When your favorite candidate is the one you took your membership card for […] and that he is no longer in the race, it is sure that you do not have the same motivation to vote, ”supports the consultant and analyst Rudy Husny.
Everyone expects Mr. Charest to change his strategy for the next few weeks to spend more time in Greater Toronto. This is where the pool of members recruited by Mr. Brown, who is mayor of a suburb in the region, Brampton, would be concentrated. “He has to work even harder to […] convince these voters to vote and set up a machine on the ground that perhaps he had not planned, […] because it would have been Mr. Brown’s team that would have done the job,” says Mr. Husny.
Strategist Melanie Paradis, who notably worked with former chief Erin O’Toole, indicates that Mr. Charest will be able to count on employees of Mr. Brown’s campaign, who will join his team. Others, however, will choose to join the close guard of other candidates, according to her. “I’m sure some will go with Pierre [Poilievre] and I heard that some of them went to the Charest team,” she said.
In his view, Mr. Brown’s disqualification tarnishes the image of the party, and more details of this decision should be given.
“Wrongdoing”
The organizing committee for the election of the next Conservative leader says it kicked Brampton’s mayor out of the race due to “serious allegations of wrongdoing” related to Canada Elections Act funding rules.
Party spokesman Yaroslav Baran told The Canadian Press that “there have been many […] allegations and accusations that have been made”.
“Some concern the rules of the race […] and others, more recently, more seriously, appear to be about potential violations of federal election law,” he said.
In an interview with the CTV network, Mr. Brown denied having anything to blame himself for. According to him, “the party establishment” wants Pierre Poilievre to win and has used schemes to favor him. “This is reprehensible and undemocratic behavior that breaks the trust of hundreds of thousands of Canadians,” he wrote in a statement earlier.
Mr Poilievre’s campaign released its own statement on Wednesday, saying Mr Brown was attacking the party and trying to “turn himself into a victim”.
If all the light is not made, Mme Paradis fears that the party will lose voter support in the next general election. Ex-strategist Tim Powers believes it could also lower voter turnout in the political party’s leadership race, in the shorter term. “Let the facts dictate the news, not the theories of Patrick Brown or the answers of Pierre Poilievre. As they say, sunlight is the best antiseptic”, he illustrates.
There are two months left in the Conservative race. The name of the winner will be announced on September 10 in Ottawa.