Polls will open across the UK on Thursday as citizens prepare to elect their MPs and, with them, their future prime minister. The election has the potential to shake up the British political landscape as the Labour Party is in a strong position to form the next government and take back the power the Conservative Party has held for 14 years.
This election is the first since Brexit, which came to fruition in January 2020. The last general election took place in 2019: British voters then chose the Conservatives of leader Boris Johnson, who delivered the political party its biggest victory since Margaret Thatcher’s in 1987.
But the current no longer seems to flow between the British and the Tories.
The political climate in the United Kingdom has been tumultuous for years: there have been five prime ministers since 2010, including one who lasted just 49 days. The country, like other countries, has endured a variety of upheavals, including the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, the invasion of Ukraine and rising living costs, in addition to the aftermath of Brexit. It was the Tories who led the country through these turbulences, and their decisions — such as David Cameron’s austerity policies, his response to the 2008 crisis — have earned them varying degrees of criticism over the years. And then the Conservatives have had to deal with scandals that have tarnished their image, such as “partygate,” named for the parties held during the pandemic at 10 Downing Street under Prime Minister Boris Johnson, despite such gatherings being in breach of health regulations.
Who is the favorite?
The latest polls put Labour as the clear favourite to win the election. Its leader, Keir Starmer, a 61-year-old former lawyer who has been in power since 2020, is campaigning on the theme of change. The centre-left party has not been in power since 2010.
The Conservatives are in second place, and in third place is the populist Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, who has been gaining popularity in the voting intentions throughout the election campaign. Accusing the Tories of failing to control immigration, he appears to be successfully siphoning votes from them, which could contribute to weakening the party’s chances in power.
The latest poll by Whitestone Insight on voting intentions, released Wednesday, puts Labour on 38% of the vote, compared to 21% for the Conservatives and 18% for Reform UK. The British daily’s poll tracking system The Guardian gives (as of Tuesday) 40.7% of the vote to Labour and 20.7% to the Tories, which would translate into 127 seats in the Commons for the latter and give Labour a record 428 MPs, well above the number they need to secure a majority government.
Current Conservative cabinet minister Mel Stride has already conceded defeat, even before the polls opened.
Why an election now?
Last May, the outgoing Prime Minister, the Conservative Rishi Sunak, in office since October 2022, called a snap election, throwing the country into an election campaign — as Emmanuel Macron did recently in France, illustrating in spite of himself that this is sometimes a risky bet.
Analysts say the 44-year-old politician was hoping to salvage Conservative fortunes by banking on his immigration policy and the recent economic upturn, with the UK finally emerging from recession in the first quarter of 2024.
How is the Prime Minister chosen?
The British electoral system is similar to the one in Canada. Britons will go to the polls to choose an MP for their constituency — there are 650 in the United Kingdom, spread across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. More than 390 political parties have registered for the election, many of which are simply satirical candidates, including “Count Binface,” who is running in Rishi Sunak’s constituency.
The UK has a “first past the post” electoral system like Canada’s: in short, the candidate who gets the most votes wins, even if he or she does not have a majority.
After the votes are counted, the king or queen usually asks the leader of the party that managed to get the most MPs elected to become the prime minister and form a government. A political party needs 326 seats to form a majority government.
What are the issues ?
With a struggling economy, a National Health Service plagued by long waiting lists, a housing crisis and a sharp rise in the cost of living, Britons naturally have the state of their wallets at the top of their list of priorities. While the Labour leader has brought his party more to the centre, he is promising not to raise taxes on individuals and businesses or the sales tax – a similar approach to that of his Conservative rival, who nevertheless promises to cut public spending.
Immigration is also a concern for citizens as migrants continue to arrive on British shores in small boats. Rishi Sunak has promised to cap the number of legal migrants and reaffirmed his plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, a controversial plan that Labour has promised to abandon if it comes to power, focusing instead on strengthening border security.