Champagne in Rio | The Press

Although the television announced that the former left-wing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or Lula, had just won the Brazilian election, Rafael Soares Gonçalves waited before opening the bottle of champagne that he had been keeping cold since. more than a month.

“I didn’t want to open it until the electoral court recognized the result,” the Carioca scholar I’ve known since my last stay in Brazil in 2019 told me on Monday.

That key moment finally took place around 8 p.m. Sunday, and the urban affairs expert and professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio was finally able to celebrate the victory of the left-wing politician in style in the streets of the Laranjeiras neighborhood. A wealthy neighborhood, but where left-wing ideas are predominant. The champagne left.

There were shouts of joy, fireworks, people jubilant.

“People were relieved! We were really afraid of a coup since January,” he told me. For months, far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro has claimed he would not recognize the election result if he was not the winner. That only God could take the power away from him. For months, he questioned the operation of the electoral machinery.

Sunday, by the way, the day of the vote, Rafael Soares Gonçalves spent the day texting me about the current elections. Some panicky texting. It was reported that in the north of the country, where Lula is particularly popular, traffic police had disobeyed the rules and erected roadblocks that slowed access to polling stations. The police are reputed to be close to Jair Bolsonaro, a former soldier.

But there seems to have been more fear than harm. The turnout was higher than in the first round on October 2. And it was in a snatch, with 50.9% of the vote, that Lula won the presidency.

A victory therefore, but in a country cut in two.

Monday, after the party, after the speech of Lula who promised to govern for one Brazil, eyes turned to the Bolsonaro camp. Would the defeated president and his close supporters cry foul and denounce rigged elections like Donald Trump and his entourage in the aftermath of the 2020 election?

Everything seemed in place for the American scenario to be reused in Brazilian sauce, but a spicier sauce. In addition to the police, Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly touted Brazil’s former military dictatorship, counts several high-ranking generals among his backers.

But instead of denouncing the result of the election, Jair Bolsonaro locked himself in silence. On Monday, as of this writing, he hadn’t said a word. According to Brazilian media, he is cloistered in the presidential residence in Brasília with members of his family.

Meanwhile, his allies recognize one after the other Lula’s victory.

In political and legal circles, but also within the Evangelical Church, where Bolsonaro draws a large part of his support.

“Jair Bolsonaro does not come from a political party and therefore there is no party structure that is loyal to him, explains Rafael Soares Gonçalves. There is not the equivalent of a Republican Party like in the United States to support it. It is on the basis of ideas and common interests that alliances are made and broken in Brazil, he adds. In four years in power, Jair Bolsonaro has alienated several collaborators. “He seems rather isolated today. »

Can we conclude that the transfer of power will take place smoothly in Brazil? It is far too early to tell. Despite his increasingly fragile political alliances, Jair Bolsonaro has broad support among the population, as the election result demonstrates.

Disappointed fans blocked roads in 12 of the country’s 27 states yesterday.

During the election campaign, Bolsonaro has repeatedly whipped his troops and an uprising by his most zealous followers – modeled on the January 6, 2021 riots in Washington – therefore cannot be ruled out at this time.

Mr. Bolsonaro also has plenty of time ahead of him. It is only at the new year that he will have to cede power to his successor. “He could make the transition very difficult. On the other hand, we have already seen the American experience and we are more alert, ”notes Sergio Tavares, professor of engineering in Rio, who also celebrated Lula’s victory in style.

What does he expect from the new president that Brazil already knows well? “We have just had four difficult years. The economy was very bad. Wages for the vast majority of people have stagnated, unemployment has increased. The handling of the pandemic was just terrible. And in addition, Bolsonaro has spent his entire mandate peddling homophobic and misogynistic speeches. With Lula, you can’t expect miracles. It will certainly be necessary to be patient before seeing results. »

In the meantime, Sergio Tavares intends to take advantage of the feeling of lightness that floats over Rio.