For the second week in a row, the number of new cases in the province is on the rise. However, projections from the National Institute of Excellence in Health and Social Services (INESSS) suggest that the number of new hospitalizations could remain low over the coming weeks. The reason ? The many cases among young people, argue the experts.
“The cases increase especially among 0 to 19 years old. Even if some of them are not yet vaccinated, they are not expected to be hospitalized, because young people are often less sick. Conversely, among the elderly, the cases are decreasing, ”explains André Veillette, professor at the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Montreal.
“We know that there are risks of long COVID-19 and inflammatory syndrome in young people, but this leads less to hospitalizations at the time of infection”, adds Nathalie Grandvaux, researcher at the research laboratory on the response of the host to CHUM viral infections.
Quebec reported 663 new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday. These new cases bring the seven-day daily average to 602. The trend is thus up 13% over one week.
Among the new cases confirmed this week, 85 people are likely to end up in hospital in the coming weeks, including 23 in intensive care, according to INESSS data.
This increase is particularly marked among those under 10, who show an increase of 30% over one week. By comparison, the number of cases among those 80 and over fell 49% over one week, to 10 cases per day on average.
Sudden rise
There are several reasons for this sudden increase in the under-20s, experts say. “First of all, young people under 12 have not yet been vaccinated,” said Mr. Veillette from the outset. He adds that adolescents may have more contact than the rest of the population, since they meet daily in high schools. “Young people have high immunization coverage, but it varies a lot from one high school to another,” he explains.
Cool weather could also have increased transmission, adds Mme Grandvaux. “When it’s cooler, we go home. We were lucky with the weather, we had a beautiful fall, but the temperatures have dropped, so we go home and open the windows less. This is true for individuals, but it is also true for schools, ”she emphasizes.
According to the most recent INESSS report, released Thursday, occupancy rates for regular beds and intensive care beds are expected to remain stable over the next two to three weeks across the province.
While the surge in cases among young people is unlikely to lead to an increase in hospitalizations in the short term, this sudden surge is not without consequence.
“The risk is that young people transmit the virus to their brothers or sisters, their parents or their grandparents,” he lists.
“It could also translate into an increase in hospitalizations if these young people are in contact with unvaccinated people”, adds Mme Grandvaux.
Virologist Benoit Barbeau, professor in the department of biological sciences at the University of Quebec at Montreal, recalls that, at present, unvaccinated people represent the largest proportion of hospitalizations.
Stable death toll
The four additional deaths recorded Thursday bring the daily average to three. The trend is thus stable over a week. Since the start of the pandemic, 11,533 Quebecers have succumbed to COVID-19.
The number of hospitalizations has declined, with a total of 215 people hospitalized now, 5 less than the day before. There are 42 people in intensive care, a decrease of 3.
Residents of Greater Montreal represent 67% of hospitalizations, and people under 70, 54% of hospitalizations.
Globally, hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are down 11% from a week ago. The decrease is more pronounced in intensive care, the number of patients having decreased there by a third (33%).
“Vaccination protects the elderly, so that the risk of hospitalization, particularly in the older age groups, will be lower,” concludes Mr. Barbeau.
Thursday, 14,601 vaccine injections were administered, for a total of 13,365,365 doses administered in Quebec.
With the collaboration of Pierre-André Normandin, Press
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