Caribou Decline Study | The threat of inaction

The caribou is obviously the first to suffer from the lack of protective measures to ensure its survival, but the governments of Quebec and Canada also face many significant risks in the event that this umbrella species were to disappear. Quebec researchers have assessed these risks, and many of them have a very high probability of materializing.

Eight risk categories

Researchers from the Canada Research Chair in Ecological Economics, affiliated with the University of Quebec in Outaouais, conducted an analysis of the risks associated with the decline of caribou populations in Quebec. The 30-page study assesses eight categories of risk that weigh on caribou, but also on the federal and provincial governments, the forest industry, local communities and Aboriginal peoples. “If I were the Prime Minister [du Québec]I would like that, to have an analysis like that,” launches Julie Pelletier, co-author of the study with researchers Jérôme Dupras and Julie Lafortune.

Multiple challenges

The analysis entitled Global perspectives on the risks associated with the decline of caribou populations in Quebec indicates that it wants to “highlight the multitude of issues to be considered for the safeguarding of this species [le caribou] “.

The authors assessed eight categories of risk: 1. biodiversity, 2. governance and strategic orientations, 3. values ​​and ethics, 4. legal, 5. reputational, 6. economic, 7. social – indigenous communities, 8. social – workers and general public. Five of these risks “present a very high probability of materializing and would present major impacts”, assess the researchers. “This means that insufficient protection measures are likely to have significant consequences at the national and international levels on biodiversity, public power, but also on certain populations of Quebec, including the First Nations”, they add.

A tool for decision making

Researcher Julie Pelletier, a jurist, worked for 25 years in the federal public service, “where risk analyzes are widely used”, she explains in an interview with The Press.

It is by noting the extent of the information transmitted to the Independent Commission on Woodland and Mountain Caribou, held by Quebec in 2021, that Mr.^me Pelletier had the idea of ​​carrying out such an analysis. Faced with issues like the caribou, “it’s a management tool that helps in decision-making,” she says. M^me Pelletier says she wouldn’t be surprised if the federal government, and even the Quebec government, had one about caribou.

The caribou: an umbrella species

Among the most obvious risks, impacts on caribou and biodiversity rank first. Since the caribou is considered an umbrella species, its disappearance could also have impacts on other species and on forest ecosystems, the researchers point out. Conversely, better protection of its habitat would “maintain or improve the availability and quality of several ecosystem services: carbon storage and sequestration, sediment retention, groundwater recharge and treatment of pollutants”, add -they. The analysis also mentions that “additional protection of caribou habitats would contribute to the preservation of 30% of the land in Quebec, the flagship objective of COP15 on biodiversity”.

Beware of legal remedies

Legal and reputational risks also have a very high possibility of materializing, the researchers say. It is estimated that a number of legal remedies would be deployed “if significant and serious government interventions are not put in place to save the species”. It should be noted that the federal Minister of the Environment, Steven Guilbeault, has already indicated to his Quebec counterpart, Benoit Charette, that he would intervene to save the caribou under the Species at Risk Act if Quebec does not put a protection plan in place by June. Ottawa could also be forced to adopt a federal decree like those put in place for another endangered species, the chorus frog, in 2016 and 2021. Reputational risks for the governments of Quebec and Canada would also be inevitable, both nationally and internationally.

Fewer and lower royalties

Although economic issues largely dominate when it comes to caribou protection, the analysis maintains that the forest industry survives, among other things, thanks to public subsidies. For example, Quebec received 82 cents in forest royalties for every dollar spent in 2004. This proportion rose to 41 cents in 2013, it is said. According to Alain Branchaud, Director General of the Society for Nature and Parks in Quebec, Quebec should precisely equip itself with a more robust socio-economic analysis regarding stumpage rights, and this risk analysis would be a good starting point. “The study also shows the importance [du caribou] for indigenous communities,” he said. “No matter where the government goes [du Québec], this type of analysis makes it possible to have an evaluation from a global perspective, recalls Julie Pelletier. This is an exercise that should have been started a long time ago,” she adds.