A majority of Canadians believe Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will remain leader of his party in the next election, even though his approval ratings are still extremely low, a new poll suggests.
Questions about Mr. Trudeau’s future have swirled for more than a year, with his party trailing the Conservatives in voting intentions. Those questions intensified last week, when the Liberals lost a stronghold to the Conservatives in a Toronto byelection.
A Léger poll of 1,521 people conducted online between June 28 and 30 found that two-thirds of respondents believe Justin Trudeau will remain leader of the Liberal Party until the next election. Under fixed-date election law, the next national vote must be held by the fall of 2025.
One in three respondents said they thought the Liberal leader would resign before the end of this year, and many thought it would happen by Labour Day.
Although the results have been statistically weighted, no margin of error can be assigned to them, as online surveys are not considered truly random samples.
Justin Trudeau, for his part, said Wednesday that he had responded to calls from members of his party, but he maintained that he would lead the Liberals in the next election.
The poll suggests widespread dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau, with just one in four respondents approving of his job as prime minister, compared with nearly two in three who said they disapproved of his performance.
These figures are almost identical to those taken from a Léger poll carried out in November 2023.
The results also come after a grueling parliamentary session in which the Liberals pushed back against constant Conservative accusations that the government is out of touch with Canadians and has made things worse after nine years in power.
Disapproval rates for Mr. Trudeau are highest in the Prairies, while Quebec has the highest level of support for the prime minister.
Love for the prime minister is almost non-existent among those who identify as Conservative voters, with just 8% approving of his performance.
Three in four Liberal voters said they approved of the prime minister’s job, compared to 32 per cent of NDP voters who said the same.
The poll suggests that a large majority — 82 per cent — of Conservative and NDP voters want Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on the ballot in the next election.
However, only 63% of Liberal voters want Justin Trudeau to stay.
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives have held a double-digit lead over Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals in voting intentions for more than a year. Another Léger poll, published in late June, showed a slight narrowing of that lead, but the Conservatives maintained a 14-point lead over the Liberals.