After 50 games, production-wise, Juraj Slafkovsky was the worst first overall pick in 26 years and in the top 3 least productive forwards in 50 years. After 100 matches, we are elsewhere.
Against the Lightning, the Slovakian played his 100e game in the NHL. Yes, he is still among the worst: 29e of the last 35 forwards drafted first overall, but his low production during the first 50 games could not really allow him to get back on track.
But when we look at games 51 to 100, comparing him to the other first picks, the gigantic Canadian winger produced at an exceptional rate for a 19-year-old.
It’s 22e out of 35. He was better than John Tavares, Vincent Lecavalier, Pierre Turgeon, Jack Hughes, Mats Sundin and Joe Thornton, in particular. Not so bad though.
In November, I published a column analyzing Slafkovsky’s production at the beginning of November by recording, factually, his number of points compared to the other first round picks. The observation was not chic.
If I were a columnist from Buffalo, it would have passed, but because I am in Quebec, I have the impression that many fans feel that I have a duty to cuddle the Canadian, and especially our young Juraj. As if it were our child. Even if they are stats, facts. I got picked up. It was spectacular.
Anyway, as I wrote in November, I like Slafkovsky, and it would be great if he became a great player. Fans in Montreal have been waiting for one for too long.
There were still doubts in his game. The advanced stats demonstrated it. He lost the puck, didn’t win his fights in the corners of the ice, didn’t make many defensive plays to take the puck from the opponent. That is to say situations where we believed that it was not going to be worse, even if it does not produce. I heard fans in the open lines say that Juraj wasn’t scoring, but at least he was big and strong along the boards to recover pucks. It was completely false.
But then, everything changed. He really shut me up.
L‘switch must have been stuck
On the power play, I don’t know what happened. But it looks like someone updated it, like a computer. As if during the night, someone had opened his brain and flipped the switch: very good on the power play, while he was stuck at average.
His sense of the game has taken a solid step forward. He finds passing lines that we didn’t even see. He keeps the puck, he recovers it and protects it much better than most guys on the ice.
Before the holidays, the Coyotes made fun of the Canadian because he did not take Logan Cooley to choose Slafkovsky. The latter is three points higher than Cooley, but also almost a head and 60 pounds more muscle. This mockery is really going to age badly.
But there, we don’t panic. I don’t want to send Slafkovsky straight to the Hall of Fame. After 100 games, good old Alex Galchenyuk had 53 points (12 more than Slafkovsky) and Jesperi Kotkaniemi had 39.
Nonetheless, Juraj’s ceiling appears higher. I believe the Canadian has a special player on their hands. And I was far from sure before Christmas.
Return of top picks in total over 50 years
AFTER 100 MATCHES
- 1984 Mario Lemieux 147
- 2005 Sidney Crosby 132
- 1981 Dale Hawerchuk 132
- 1991 Eric Lindros 128
- 2004 Alex Ovechkin 128
- 2015 Connor McDavid 108
- 1978 Bobby Smith 106
- 2007 Patrick Kane 96
- 1977 Dale McCourt 94
- 1988 Mike Modano 94
- 2001 Ilya Kovalchuk 90
- 2016 Auston Matthews 90
- 1973 Denis Potvin 80 (D)
- 1985 Wendel Clark 75
- 2013 Nathan MacKinnon 74
- 2011 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 74
- 2010 Taylor Hall 72
- 2008 Steven Stamkos 70
- 1975 Mel Bridgman 68
- 2009 John Tavares 66
- 2017 Nico Hischier 65
- 1995 Bryan Berard 64 (D)
- 1993 Alexandre Daigle 62
- 2002 Rick Nash 58
- 2018 Rasmus Dahlin 56 (D)
- 1989 Mats Sundin 56
- 1980 Doug Wickenheiser 55
- 2006 Erik Johnson 54 (D)
- 1987 Pierre Turgeon 51
- 2014 Aaron Ekblad 46 (D)
- 2021 Owen Power 46 (D)
- 1990 Owen Nolan 44
- 2012 Nail Yakupov 44
- 1983 Brian Lawton 43
- 2019 Jack Hughes 42
- 2022 Juraj Slafkovsky 41
- 1979 Rob Ramage 40 (D)
- 1998 Vincent Lecavalier 39
- 1986 Joe Murphy 37
- 1994 Ed Jovanovski 36 (D)
- 1999 Patrik Stefan 35
- 1974 Greg Joly 33 (D)
- 2020 Alexis Lafrenière 33
- 1976 Rick Green 31 (R)
- 1992 Roman Hamrlik 30 (D)
- 1997 Joe Thornton 25
- 1982 Gord Kluzak 22 (R)
- 1996 Chris Phillips 22 (R)
GAME 51 TO 100
- 1984 Mario Lemieux 78
- 2005 Sidney Crosby 74
- 1981 Dale Hawerchuk 71
- 1988 Mike Modano 65
- 1991 Eric Lindros 64
- 2004 Alex Ovechkin 62
- 1978 Bobby Smith 62
- 2015 Connor McDavid 54
- 2007 Patrick Kane 51
- 2008 Steven Stamkos 50
- 1977 Dale McCourt 49
- 2016 Auston Matthews 47
- 2001 Ilya Kovalchuk 46
- 1973 Denis Potvin 45 (D)
- 1975 Mel Bridgman 43
- 2011 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 41
- 2013 Nathan MacKinnon 40
- 1990 Owen Nolan 38
- 1985 Wendel Clark 37
- 1995 Bryan Berard 34 (D)
- 2017 Nico Hischier 32
- 1980 Doug Wickenheiser 31
- 2002 Rick Nash 29
- 2022 Juraj Slafkovsky 29
- 2018 Rasmus Dahlin 28 (D)
- 2021 Owen Power 28 (D)
- 1993 Alexandre Daigle 26
- 2009 John Tavares 26
- 2019 Jack Hughes 22
- 1998 Vincent Lecavalier 22
- 1979 Rob Ramage 22 (R)
- 1987 Pierre Turgeon 22
- 1974 Greg Joly 21 (D)
- 2006 Erik Johnson 20 (R)
- 1982 Gord Kluzak 19 (R)
- 1986 Joe Murphy 19
- 1983 Brian Lawton 18
- 1997 Joe Thornton 18
- 1994 Ed Jovanovski 17 (D)
- 1989 Mats Sundin 17
- 2014 Aaron Ekblad 16 (D)
- 1992 Roman Hamrlik 16 (D)
- 2020 Alexis Lafrenière 15
- 1999 Patrik Stefan 14
- 2012 Nail Yakupov 13
- 1976 Rick Green 11 (R)
- 1996 Chris Phillips 10 (R)