Canadians’ grocery cart will continue to cost more in 2022, predict researchers from four universities across the country.
While food prices have seen an average increase of 3.8% in 2021, the annual food price report released on Thursday projects inflation of 5-7% for the next year.
This is the first time in 12 years that researchers have predicted such a high increase, underlines project leader Sylvain Charlebois, professor in the faculties of management and agriculture at Dalhousie University in Halifax. Twenty-seven researchers are part of the team, also from the universities of Guelph, Saskatchewan and British Columbia. In particular, they used artificial intelligence to analyze a large number of factors influencing the price of food.
The most affected product categories are dairy products, with an expected growth of 6-8%, as well as vegetables, bakery and pastry, with 5-7%.
The price of meat, which has increased by 9.9% in the last 12 months, should on the other hand be more reasonable. “It’s very rare that it increases so quickly, two years in a row. We are starting to reach a critical threshold in terms of prices, and people are starting to buy something other than meat, ”explains Mr. Charlebois.
To feed a family of four made up of a man, a woman, a teenager and a pre-teen, it would cost an average of $ 14,767.36, or $ 966.08 more than in 2021. The increase should however be a little less marked in Quebec than the Canadian average, according to the report.
Transport, labor and climate change
Several factors that pushed prices higher this year will remain, the researchers say. First, there is the labor shortage, which plagues all stages of the supply chain, from farmers to grocery stores to processing plants.
In addition, transportation is expected to continue to be expensive due to disruptions in global supply chains and the price of oil. Some effects of climate change, such as droughts and fires, have also affected productivity.
“Small harvests and low crop yields have made and will continue to push up the price of baked goods, while scarcity of water and heat have forced farmers to temporarily reduce herd sizes, resulting in increased herd size. of the price of meat, ”said the report for the past year.
As an explanation for the dramatic rise for dairy products, the report cites “the increase in production costs due to COVID-19, especially for feed, energy and fertilizers, as well as other costs. plus milk processing (eg packaging, labor and transportation) ”.
Fears for families
However, as wages are not increasing as quickly, researchers fear a worsening of food insecurity in the country. Adding house prices to the equation, the report’s authors call the situation a “perfect economic storm”.
“Food programs could face challenges from increased demand and rising food costs, and food retailers could see more shoplifting numbers,” the document said.
Mr. Charlebois said he was not surprised to see labor disputes appearing, because workers noticed that their purchasing power was decreasing.