The announcement of the death of Russian opponent Alexeï Navalny cast a shadow over the opening, Friday, of the Munich security conference. If, after two years of war in Ukraine, the atmosphere was already quite heavy at this annual meeting of defense leaders and experts, the revelation of the disappearance of the political prisoner and main adversary of Vladimir Putin came to remind everyone dignitaries present that the threat posed by the Russian president to the international order is not just hypothetical. As was the revelation earlier this week of allies’ concerns over Russia’s potential development of a weapon capable of destroying satellites in space.
Despite the approximately 886 billion US dollars that the United States plans to spend this year on defense, European countries are not reassured about the likelihood that their main ally will come to their rescue, if necessary. Vice-President Kamala Harris was dispatched by the White House to Munich to try to calm things down. A difficult task. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives is still reluctant to grant additional aid to Ukraine. And Donald Trump, who is ahead of the boss of Mme Harris, in most polls ahead of next November’s presidential election, promises to allow Mr. Putin to “do whatever he wants” with NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) member countries. ) which do not allocate the equivalent of 2% of their GDP to defense.
Before going to Munich, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg tried to rally the troops by announcing, during a press conference Thursday in Brussels, that 18 of the alliance’s 31 member countries should reach the target of 2% this year. This is a phenomenal jump compared to 2014 – the year when only 3 countries reached this goal – thanks to the meteoric rise in spending in Europe since the invasion of Ukraine. “We are really on the right track,” said Mr. Stoltenberg. European allies are spending more. However, some member countries still have a way to go. »
Alas! Canada is still part of the NATO delinquents club. With approximately 1.33% of its GDP spent on defense, Canada is between Italy and Spain among the least expensive member countries in terms of military spending. In 2022, the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer predicted that this proportion would increase to 1.59% of GDP in 2026-2027 based on forecasts (not always reliable) from the Department of National Defense. To reach the 2% target, Ottawa would need to spend between $13 and $18 billion more per year, on a recurring basis, for five years.
Commenting on the death of Mr. Navalny, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described Mr. Putin as a “monster,” but his government continues to frustrate its allies by dodging as soon as they demand a greater military effort. Canada’s share. According to Washington Post, the Prime Minister even confided to NATO authorities that Canada would “never” reach the 2% target. According to a Pentagon document obtained in 2023 by the American daily, “widespread defense shortcomings hamper Canadian capabilities […] while straining partner relationships and alliance contributions.”
Don’t count on conservatives to change these impressions. According to the leader of the official opposition, Pierre Poilievre, Canada has become “weak, poor and defenseless” under the reign of Mr. Trudeau. “His plan for national defense is to depend on Joe Biden or Donald Trump to protect Canada,” he hammered this week.
However, the Conservative leader is also not committing to ensuring that Canada reaches the threshold of 2% of GDP in terms of military spending if he becomes prime minister. At most, he promises to come close by eliminating “useless” amounts currently devoted to international aid and reinvesting this money in the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). Canada spends barely 0.3% of its GDP on international aid and any reduction would constitute an abdication of its responsibilities towards the less fortunate in the world. It is not by permanently eliminating the Canadian contribution of 25 million dollars per year to UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East), as Mr. Poilievre promises to do so, that he will succeed in bailing out the FAC.
The invasion of Ukraine will have served to bring most European countries closer together. Finland became a member of NATO; Sweden will soon follow. If the feeling of insecurity caused by Russian aggression explains the eagerness with which these countries, like Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries, increase their military spending, Canadian politicians prefer to remain in denial. One way or another, we will pay the price one day.