Is Canada’s security jeopardized by Russian aggression against Ukraine? As things stand, and as long as there is no direct confrontation between NATO and Russian forces, most Canadians would say no. In terms of physical security, at least.
Posted yesterday at 12:00 p.m.
However, Canada could well be directly targeted by certain operations that the Russians have mastered well, operations that are all the more pernicious in that they are anonymous and difficult to counter. These are cyber warfare and subversion operations, which take place on the so-called home front, and which aim to harm the economy and the functioning of institutions for the former, and to fragment the fabric social and political for the seconds.
Several States have already been victims of cyberattacks that can be attributed to Russia, although the proof is difficult to establish and other States or organizations may be part of the list of suspects. In Canada, government institutions of all levels, and even large corporations, are still vulnerable to this kind of attack.
But Canadian society also seems to be a breeding ground for subversion operations, in particular by disseminating and amplifying false information on the Internet. Russia has mastered these techniques well, since it has launched numerous disinformation operations, the first solidly documented having taken place in Estonia in the spring of 2007. And what about the disinformation of the Russian propaganda channels RT, Ruptly and Sputnik.
This vulnerability is exacerbated, here as in many Western countries, by the existence of an audience ready to receive the type of message that such operations broadcast.
Many groups (right-wing extremists, trumpists, libertarians, vaccine opponents, conspiracy theorists) have taken advantage of the discontent generated by health measures to extend their influence over the past two years, but it took the occupation of Ottawa so that many Canadians understand the extent and seriousness of the phenomenon.
Beyond the challenge of health measures, it is very often the legitimacy of the government, or even of the Canadian political system, that is called into question.
This movement naturally draws much of its energy from existing conditions in Canada, such as the widespread irritation in the West since the re-election of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in 2019 and 2021. It is also openly fueled by ideas coming from United States and by the fascination exercised by the iconoclastic and anti-elitist remarks of ex-President Trump.
As the war in Ukraine chases from the front pages a pandemic that seems to be running out of steam and health measures that fall one after the other, the protest movement is making intellectual contortions to draw new fuel from it. Trump also largely contributes to this by trying to instrumentalize the war and by openly evoking his admiration for Vladimir Putin and his policies.
Conspiratorial circles, including in Canada and Quebec, quickly picked up on the events in Ukraine, and began to rewrite or reinterpret the history of Russian-Ukrainian relations or even to transform the meaning of the conflict – when it is not treated as the latest lie of a beleaguered elite. Thus, an influencer and his guest make a long video to explain that the war is the result of Ukrainian provocations, that the Russian speakers of Donbass are the real victims, and that the Atlantic Alliance is the incarnation of the hated globalists; a former candidate for the People’s Party of Canada adorns his Facebook profile with a Russian flag while affirming that “war is a democratic tool in the service of freedom”.
In a curious twist, Putin becomes, for many supporters of this movement, the bearer of the torch of freedom and the most recent candidate for the title of “savior”.
There is, to date, no evidence of any operation of intoxication and subversion blowing the embers of this movement, but the occasion is certainly tempting for the Russian trolls. The protest movement against the Canadian political system has already shown its porosity to foreign influences by receiving a very large part of donations intended to finance the so-called “freedom convoy” from abroad.
Canada has thus joined the all too long list of societies already fractured by right-wing populism. This phenomenon, which can be encouraged by subversion operations, is all to the benefit of Russia, since it undermines the ability of Western governments to present a united and resolute front against Moscow.