Last week, New Democrat Leader Andrea Horwath, Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca and Green Leader Mike Schreiner announced that they would not support a minority Conservative government led by Doug Ford following the Ontario provincial election in June 2 next. The opposition parties thus hinted at the possibility of forming a coalition government.
Posted at 1:00 p.m.
The Conservative Party still leads, according to the most recent polls, but it is believed that it may only win a plurality rather than a majority of seats at Queen’s Park. In such a context, a coalition government would be the result of a constitutional arrangement, although it is not part of Canadian political culture. Worse still, a coalition government could be risky for the parties involved.
A constitutionally possible scenario
According to the Canadian constitutional tradition of the Westminster type, the representative of the Crown – in this case the Lieutenant-Governor – must give the outgoing Prime Minister the opportunity to form a government, whether or not he has obtained a majority. seats. The outgoing government can stay in place as long as it retains the confidence of the legislature.
In a minority situation, the government risks being removed from office if it fails to have its Speech from the Throne or its budget adopted by a majority of parliamentarians.
The opposition can also easily defeat a minority government by passing a motion of no confidence in it.
The lieutenant-governor then has the constitutional discretion to ask another political formation to form a new government which must also obtain the confidence of the assembly in order to govern. The Crown representative can also call an election, but this has never happened immediately after an election.
As for the form that a coalition government can take, there are several. A party can govern with the formal support of one or more parties. Political parties can also join forces by establishing a cabinet that includes ministers from all parties in the alliance.
The Culture of Coalition Governments
Although coalition governments are constitutional, they are not part of the Canadian political culture, unlike that of other countries such as Germany, Israel or Italy. In our recent history, few coalition governments have taken power or attempted to establish them.
In Ontario, the last multiparty alliance dates back to 1985. The elections gave a plurality but not a majority of seats to the Conservatives led by Frank Miller. What ensued was an agreement between David Peterson’s Liberal Party and Bob Rae’s New Democratic Party that the Liberals would govern with the support of the New Democrats for two years in exchange for certain public policy concessions.
Interestingly, the Liberal Party had won the popular vote, 37.9% against 37% for the Progressive Conservative Party. The coalition also ended a 45-year dynasty of conservative prime ministers.
The very good electoral performance of the Liberals combined with the population’s strong desire for change gave credibility to this coalition.
More recently, at the federal level, we will remember the 2008 elections that produced a minority government for the second term of Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. The Liberal leader at the time, Stéphane Dion, had introduced a motion of no confidence in order to create a coalition government with the New Democrats of Jack Layton which would have been supported by the Bloc Québécois of Gilles Duceppe.
To counter this political maneuver that would have defeated his government, Harper convinced Governor General Michaëlle Jean to controversially prorogue Parliament. When parliamentary work resumed, the coalition had disappeared. The Conservative Prime Minister had strongly questioned the legitimacy of this coalition attempt because it was supported by Quebec sovereignists and threatened, in his words, national unity.
A risky proposition
A coalition government bringing together at least the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party of Ontario would certainly operate in a very different context from the scenarios mentioned above. It would not raise national unity issues or end a long Conservative reign.
Ontarians’ appetite for a coalition government remains uncertain. In fact, many citizens might perceive this political development as a disrespect of election results and a hijacking of provincial democracy by power-hungry actors. The Liberals and New Democrats could also see themselves punished in the next election by their supporters for getting together with their political opponents.
Moreover, the possibility of a Liberal and New Democrat government could encourage some Ontarians to vote for the Conservative Party. In fact, a good part of the electorate oscillates between a liberal affiliation and a conservative affiliation and does not want a government including the NDP, which would imply political choices too left for their taste.
Still hypothetical, a coalition government could harm participating political parties. The Liberals and New Democrats would do well to weigh the pros and cons before promising such an alliance without knowing the outcome of the election. For Ford, this intention of the opposition parties could prove a formidable weapon to maintain its majority.