Canada 360 | Infestations to be expected in Manitoba

First woman to lead the province, Heather Stefanson inherits a divided party

Last Saturday, the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba (PPC) chose a new leader: Heather Stefanson. This is the first woman elected to head the training. Remarkable in itself, the event is even more spectacular due to the fact that she consequently becomes the first premier of this prairie province. In the short and medium terms, however, it will have to face a series of obstacles, each more perilous than the next.

Brian Pallister leaves

The PPC has been in power since 2016 and is currently leading a second consecutive majority government. Nonetheless, having become extremely unpopular due to his initial handling of the pandemic, acrimonious relations with the unions and his “unfortunate remarks” on the issue of reconciliation with Indigenous people, former prime minister and training chief Brian Pallister, announced in August that he was retiring from politics. From then on, a leadership race ensued.

Due to our parliamentary system, such a situation implies that the new person who takes the leadership of the party, which currently controls the majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly, consequently becomes premier of the province.

Leadership race

Quickly (read: almost instantaneously), Heather Stefanson’s candidacy was supported by several influential members of the party executive, only to enjoy the support of the overwhelming majority of the caucus. Elected continuously since 2000 and having held various important ministerial positions under Pallister’s governments, Stefanson has emerged as the candidate for “change in continuity”.

It is in this context that the formation announced very imposing criteria for anyone wishing to take part in the race. Among other things, within four weeks, candidates were to raise $ 25,000 in donations and attract at least 1,000 new members (note that under Pallister the party had around 5,000 members; it now has nearly 26,000) .

However, failing to enjoy the support of the party executive, Stefanson’s only opponent, Shelly Glover, sought to stand out with a more populist approach and attracted a conservative electorate very dissatisfied with the establishment. Former police officer and federal minister under the Conservative government of Stephen Harper, Glover wanted to embody a wind of change. In addition, Glover has emerged as the preferred candidacy of groups opposed to health measures; an electorate found mainly in rural areas of the province. It is also on this issue that the two candidates opposed the most. They also exhibited two very different styles of leadership.

Although Glover had the advantage of not being associated with the unpopular Pallister, he is nonetheless recognized for several of the qualities and flaws associated with him: determination, maximum control of the message and a certain dose of populism. As for Stefanson, we have almost forgotten that she was Minister of Health under Pallister, so much her style differs from that of her former boss: we think more of the qualities of compassion, collaboration and listening.

51% vs. 49%

At the end of a vote entirely organized by post, which was crowned with a participation rate of 66%, Stefanson narrowly wins against Glover (51% against 49%): 363 ballots separate them!

However, more than 1,000 party members in good standing – most of whom are said to live in remote rural areas, associated mostly with Glover’s electorate – were unable to vote. They simply did not receive their election kit on time.

Preferring to lay the blame on the postal system, rather than craft a democratic solution allowing all members to vote, the party executive stubbornly did not revise its initial game plan.

Concretely, this unfortunate situation has turned in favor of Stefanson, favorite of the establishment, whose support is more concentrated in the region of Winnipeg. This is why Glover had asked that we postpone the announcement of the results, so that the counting takes into account the late ballots, but in vain …

Thus, the new premier of Manitoba is brought to this position with the support of 8,405 members of her formation. But the real test will come in two years, in the next provincial election, when nearly a million Manitobans will be called to the polls.

Unit and division

During a leadership race, at least two clans clash. Once the ballot has passed, it is nevertheless crucial that the party projects the image of a common front and that the losing clan concedes victory. However, given the number of anti-establishment members who have lined up behind Glover, and since Glover challenges the legitimacy of the ballot, the desired unity risks being tarnished by serious internal struggles, which notably oppose the urban wings. and rural party.

In this context, the New Democratic Party of Manitoba (NDP), led by Wab Kinew, should have no difficulty in taking advantage of the weakness of the Conservatives and regaining power in 2023. Faced with a less charismatic Stefanson at the head of ‘a divided and exhausted party, Kinew will have several choice cards in his deck. In particular, he will be able to recall the mismanagement of the health system during the pandemic; Stefanson’s former ministry under Pallister, when it was still very low key.

It’s hard to imagine a better pre-election context for the NDP!

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