Canada 360 | End of cycle in Western Canada?

While in Quebec and Ontario, public life is already punctuated by the fall general elections, in the western provinces, the political climate has not yet gone into pre-election mode. Indeed, western provincial governments can legally stay in power until 2023 (Alberta and Manitoba) and 2024 (British Columbia and Saskatchewan). Nevertheless, fundamental movements seem to herald considerable changes in Manitoba and Alberta.

Everything that goes up eventually comes down

Contemporary Canadian politics is characterized by an imperfect bipartisanship. As a general rule, two main political parties alternate in power, subject to a certain number of years and mandates spent in the opposition, and vice versa. Over the past fifty years, Manitoba’s partisan system has led to the election of NDP and Conservative governments, the latter having been in power since 2015. In Alberta, the recent NDP government of Rachel Notley (2015 -2019) was rather the exception in the face of a series of conservative governments.

Currently, the two prairie provinces are governed by blues: Heather Stefanson, in Manitoba, and Jason Kenney, in Alberta. These two premiers also have in common that they represent the two least popular provincial governments in the country: they respectively garner an approval rate of 21% and 26%.^⁠1 This is a historic low.

NDP upsurge

Although he would no doubt like to enjoy stronger support, Conservative Scott Moe, head of the Saskatchewan government, seems in a good position to resist the left wind blowing on the Prairies. In western and eastern Saskatchewan, however, this heavy trend could well give victory to New Democrat forces in the next provincial election.

In Manitoba, the NDP led by Wab Kinew dominates in voting intentions, with support of at least 41% in the polls since December 2020. In November 2021, the arrival of Stefanson as the new Conservative leader, and incidentally prime minister, had no significant effect on the polls.^⁠2 In urban ridings, the advance of New Democrat forces is even more significant. This is also a trend observed in Jason Kenney’s province.

In Alberta, the Prime Minister’s popularity rating has taken a turn for the worse and does not seem to be recovering any time soon. In addition to his disastrous handling of the pandemic, the lack of enthusiasm and the starving turnout during the referendum on the equalization system, which he organized last October, gave important ammunition to the NDP leader. , Rachel Notley. The referendum results also showed the growing divide between urban and rural areas.

According to the most recent polls produced by Angus Reid, the Alberta NDP also dominates the voting intentions (42%), and has been for some time now.

Nothing suggests, for the moment, a reversal of this current in public opinion. As the next elections in Alberta and Manitoba are only scheduled for 2023, these figures cannot be relied upon to conclude on a definitive trend. But certain forthcoming events, in Manitoba in particular, are likely to be decisive.

Replace MP Pallister

A few weeks after the former premier of Manitoba announced his imminent departure from active politics last summer (he was replaced by Heather Stefanson), Brian Pallister formally resigned and relinquished his seat as MP for the urban riding of Fort Whyte, in the Winnipeg area. In accordance with Manitoba election law, a by-election must be held by the end of March 2022 to elect a new representative for this constituency. This election will take place on March 22.

Created in 1999, this constituency has always been represented by Blues. What’s more, not only were the last two elected from Fort Whyte the leaders of the Progressive Conservative Party, but they also always collected more than 50% of the ballots there. This is a Conservative fortified castle in Manitoba.

This time, however, the bets are off: in addition to the former manager of the Winnipeg Symphony Orchestra (Trudy Schroeder, NDP), two former stars of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers football club (Obby Khan, Progressive Party- Conservative; Willard Reaves, Liberal Party of Manitoba) are coveting the seat vacated by Pallister. By betting on these public figures, and given the rise of the NDP among urban voters in the province, each party has a reasonable chance of winning.

For the Liberals, this victory would not only be symbolic: a fourth member under the red banner in the Legislative Assembly would force the institutional recognition of the Liberal Party of Manitoba, which comes with considerable resources and parliamentary privileges.

For the NDP, we clearly want to send the signal that the tide has changed since the 2019 elections. We are thus presenting ourselves as a government in waiting. A victory in the partial would give weight to their message.

For the party in power, we are desperately looking for a victory, whatever it is. But even if the Fort Whyte seat is retained, another by-election in the riding of Thompson is scheduled for July. We must therefore remain on the lookout. And next time, we will play on even more favorable ground for the NDP.

In short, we seem to be witnessing the end of the cycle for the provincial Conservatives in Manitoba, but also in Alberta.