can you win by losing?

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Can you win by losing? This is indeed the question we will try to answer. Because, yes, without a doubt, with a number of deputies almost halved, it’s a tough defeat for Les Républicains in these legislative elections. And yet, that was not the impression given by Rachida Dati when questioning Emmanuel Macron on BFMTV, Tuesday June 21. “The first thing I can tell him is to come back to the reality of the country, to reality, declares the mayor of the 7th arrondissement of Paris. Given the result of the legislative elections, the real is us. It is embodied by Les Républicains, by the right that we are.”

Here, at the end of these elections, the reality would be them, and it is therefore towards them that the President of the Republic should turn. And… it’s not wrong! Here we find the whole paradox of this election. By constraining the presidential bloc to a relative majority, the good results of the left and the extreme right have, in reality, strengthened the position of the Republicans. Let’s not forget that some of them are already sitting on the benches of the presidential majority. Even are or have been in government. Édouard Philippe and Jean Castex of course, but also Gérald Darmanin, Bruno Le Maire, Éric Woerth, Damien Abad… There is nothing original about noticing the porosity that exists between the policy led by Emmanuel Macron and that defended by the Republicans. It is therefore towards them that the President of the Republic should, indeed, logically, turn to try to have his reforms adopted.

>> National Assembly: Christian Jacob refuses an alliance with Emmanuel Macron, LR activists more divided

And yet, Les Républicains continue to present themselves as an opposition group. Tuesday morning again Rachida Dati, but also Christian Jacob, on France Inter, and François-Xavier Bellamy, on Public Sénat, have not ceased to remind him. “We have a very clear line, we are in opposition. We campaigned in opposition to Emmanuel Macron. / We are in opposition to Emmanuel Macron, we remain in opposition to Emmanuel Macron. / We do not want to participate in the government. / Once again I repeat, we are in opposition. / We are in opposition to Emmanuel Macron.

Despite discordant voices who wanted a government agreement, Jean-François Copé in particular, Les Républicains therefore decided. They remain, clearly, in the opposition. And yet… they do not rule out passing certain laws with the presidential majority. “We are ready to make the proposals that we have on the table. / Each time there will be proposals that will be made. / We know what we proposed to our constituents. / It is up to the government and its majority, or what remains of it, to accept them or not. On purchasing power, we have very clear proposals. / If this project is ours, we are not going to vote against it, provided it is ours.”

The Republicans will therefore agree to vote for reforms… provided that they are theirs! And it’s interesting, because it’s, in fact, totally consistent with the definition of what a parliamentary opposition is. An opposition group is not a group that does not accept any text. This is a group that does not accept any compromise. That’s exactly what The Republicans are saying!

We therefore have a dominated group during the elections which behaves in a dominant way in the negotiations. So, yes, it’s surprising but it’s actually consistent with what the theory tells us! In a negotiation, it is crucial to distinguish the balance of power from the relationship of power. Here the power ratio is clear. He is clearly in favor of the presidential majority, which has four times more deputies than the Republicans. But the balance of power is more complex. And it is notably determined by a very simple question. What happens if there is no agreement? What is Emmanuel Macron’s plan B? It is clear: to be reduced to powerlessness, not to be able to govern, to end up dissolving the Assembly pitifully, and to have to face the elections in an unfavorable dynamic. It’s not a very pleasant prospect.

For the Republicans, on the other hand, plan B is not so bad: wait. Wait for the next elections, and hope to achieve a better result. In the discussions that will open, paradoxically, it is on their side that the balance of power leans. This explains why Republican officials have been bragging so much since Tuesday. And it also explains why members of the majority seem to be starting to explore the possibility of other alliances. Even if it means seeking votes, as some have already mentioned, on the far right of the hemicycle.


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