The words of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are incisive towards the West. “All the Ukrainians who will die from today will also die because of you”, he launched last Friday at the place of NATO which refused to set up a no-fly zone, before adding on Sunday: “You too want us to be killed slowly. Despite the Kiev strongman’s angry rhetoric and the ever-increasing civilian casualties, moral suasion exerted on Western countries should not lead to direct military involvement on their part.
“The idea that the allies [de l’Ukraine] embark on a direct confrontation with the Russians, that can only mean war with a nuclear power – which was never tried, even during the Cold War”, emphasizes Frédéric Mérand, director of the Center for Studies and of international research from the University of Montreal (CERIUM).
For this professor of political science, as for other experts interviewed by The duty, this scenario is highly unlikely. “Nuclear power is the deterrent par excellence and this deterrent is exerted on the West, notes in turn the former diplomat and professional in residence at the University of Ottawa Ferry de Kerckhove. It wouldn’t take much for NATO to dismantle the Russian tank column near Kiev. But what would Russia’s response be? Putin is dangerous and has no respect for human life. »
Where clashes could occur, it is at the level of the definition that each clan has of what constitutes or does not constitute an implication of the West, notes Frédéric Mérand. “We decided that supporting Ukraine is not the same as declaring war on Russia. But Putin will increasingly defend the idea that supporting Ukraine is the same as attacking Russia. »
Multiple interpretations
A red line in the NATO-Russia relationship which is therefore porous, constantly redefined and subject to multiple interpretations. On Friday, NATO rejected Kiev’s request to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine. A decision that aims to avoid any direct military confrontation with Moscow, so as not to expand the war beyond beyond Ukrainian borders.
A choice sharply denounced by the Ukrainian president but which includes Volodymyr Dubovyk, director of the Center for International Studies at the National University II Metchnikov of Odessa in the south of Ukraine. “Of course, Russia’s air superiority is costing us civilian lives. But I understand the logic of the West which does not want to enter into direct confrontation with the Russian forces [en devant abattre, par exemple, un avion russe pour faire respecter la zone d’exclusion aérienne]. »
The professor of international relations stresses, however, that President Zelensky’s hardening of his tone towards his Western allies allows him to obtain more active support from them. “Zelensky is already saying, ok, you can’t give us a no-fly zone, so give us the means to protect ourselves by providing us with fighter jets or air defense weapons. »
A dangerous but necessary game
Poland also said it was ready on Tuesday to hand over its Mig-29, Soviet fighter planes, to the United States – which wants to hand them over to Ukraine. In return, the United States would replace Poland’s aircraft with F-16 type fighters.
A Western game that is “dangerous, but necessary”, in the eyes of Ferry de Kerckhove. “Transfer to Ukraine much more aggressive air weapons than Stinger missiles [que l’Occident fournit déjà à l’armée ukrainienne] could correspond in Putin’s mind to an almost direct NATO intervention. »
A reading shared by Frédéric Mérand. “I think Russia will defend the idea that this type of support constitutes aggression,” he said. But that does not mean that the country will attack NATO. There is also a calculation on their side which is completely dizzying. »
For example, if Russia had explicitly and openly supplied arms to al-Qaeda or insurgents in Iraq in recent years, the United States would likely have declared it a hostile act without necessarily attacking the country of Vladimir Putin, illustrates the director of CÉRIUM.
Moscow’s reaction will therefore be one to watch in the coming days. “We are entering uncharted territory,” notes Frédéric Mérand. Even during the Cold War, we never went that far. »
The media attention occupied by the Russia-Ukraine war does not mean that the suffering of Ukrainians is greater than that of other peoples caught up in armed conflicts, continues the researcher. But the consequences [de cette guerre] on international peace are not the same [que dans les autres conflits]. We are in a different order of magnitude here. We are in a combustible situation. »