Justin Trudeau is far from out of the woods as he prepares to call a byelection that is crucial to his leadership. A recent poll of voters in the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun suggests a three-way race is looming, with the Liberals down from last year’s poll.
According to the poll conducted by the firm Mainstreet Research two weeks ago, the Liberal Party of Canada is credited with 26.2% of voting intentions, the Bloc Québécois with 23.7%, the New Democratic Party with 23.3% and the Conservative Party of Canada with 11.9%. Nearly 8.7% of respondents say they are undecided.
“That’s a 15-point drop since the last election. That’s very significant. And I think that’s just the general trend right now (as) the Liberals are struggling in the polls across the country,” said polling firm president Quito Maggi in an interview with The Canadian Press.
The fall is spectacular because the Liberals are starting from a high point. The riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun can be considered one of their strongholds. They have won the three elections held there since its creation.
In the last election, former Justice Minister David Lametti was re-elected with 42.9% of the vote, finishing far ahead of his opponents. The Bloc candidate received 22.1% of the vote, the NDP candidate came in third (19.4%) and the Conservative candidate received 7.5%. The People’s Party candidate received 3.4% and the Green Party candidate received 3.0%.
Mr. Maggi noted that in the riding “on one side it’s a fight between the Liberals and the Bloc, and on the other side it’s a fight between the Liberals and the NDP.”
He said he believes a dynamic where there is “the Liberal vote and the non-Liberal vote” could form around the NDP or the Bloc, much like in Toronto-St. Paul’s where the Liberals suffered a painful defeat last month at the hands of the Conservatives in what was also considered one of their strongholds.
Mr. Maggi, like several other analysts consulted, considers that the conservatives have “no chance” in this race.
The survey was conducted using automated calls to landlines and cellphones on July 8 and 9 with 329 respondents. The margin of error is 5.4%, 19 times out of 20.
“Nothing is certain anymore”
With such a survey, “the entire dashboard is lit up in red,” illustrates Jeremy Ghio, a former Liberal strategist in Ottawa and director of TACT Conseil in Montreal.
According to him, Mr. Trudeau’s opponents can now consider that “everything is possible, even taking bastions, strongholds from him.” At the moment, “there is nothing safe for the Liberals, no riding,” he notes.
Although Mr. Ghio said he expects the Liberals to win “if the logical order of things is respected”, a defeat in this riding which is “in the top 30 seats” in the country would be “a very bad omen” for the next election, so much so that “anyone in the caucus will start to panic” because it would herald “a disaster, a sinking ship”.
The last time the Liberals lost the two former ridings that formed parts of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in a redistricting (LaSalle—Émard and Jeanne-Le Ber) was in 2011, when the Liberal Party of Canada suffered its worst result in history under Michael Ignatieff, during the orange wave propelled by NDP leader Jack Layton.
The former strategist believes that the NDP has hit a “home run” by proposing the candidacy of former city councillor Craig Sauvé and that he is capable “on his own” of pulling his party upwards. He warns that if the Liberals do not “put their foot down,” the scenario of a NDP victory cannot be ruled out.
This is because, he believes, disappointed Liberal voters in this area of Montreal known for being “more progressive, but federalist” have two options: “stay home” or give their support to this “well-known figure.”
The choice of city councilor Laura Palestini as the Liberal candidate to succeed former Justice Minister David Lametti is also a cause for concern.
“We would have expected the party in power to present a star. It could have been an economic bigwig, but we went for a local councillor,” he said. “For me, it also indicates perhaps problems with recruitment and the attractiveness of the party.”
Trudeau’s leadership
University of Montreal political science professor Catherine Ouellet explained that by-elections often represent “a strong trend in public opinion or an indicator.”
The Mainstreet poll is therefore “the materialization” of the “fatigue” towards the Liberal Party that has been observed in the polls for months and must “necessarily worry” the Liberal troops.
She said it was “very, very, very unlikely” at this point that the Liberals would win a significant victory. And she predicted that even if they did win “by a whisker,” pressure would likely mount for Trudeau to step aside.
A riding like LaSalle — Émard — Verdun, with its high proportion of immigrants and English-speaking or allophones, is normally “almost acquired” by the Liberals, she said.
So, “even a slim victory is not really a victory” and “must be interpreted as a signal that there is a wind of change that is needed which often obviously passes through the main figure who embodies the party, in this case Justin Trudeau.”
His colleague Éric Montigny of Laval University believes that a narrow victory would have the effect of a “warning shot”, as several members of parliament from the island of Montreal would no longer be able to have “peace of mind”, and a defeat would send the message that there is “peril ahead”.
Professor Montigny also points out that the Liberals could have other types of obstacles in having chosen not to hold a nomination meeting in the riding and instead to nominate “on a Friday afternoon at the end of the day” a candidate active at the municipal level when there were other contenders who were thus excluded.
“That, perhaps, on the organizational level, could leave traces on the mobilization of activists, on the very organization of the campaign dynamic on the ground,” he declared.
The election in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun must be called no later than next Tuesday. The vote will be held no later than Monday, September 16. The Conservatives have chosen entrepreneur Louis Ialenti to represent their colours. And the Bloc has not yet revealed its choice.