“He is the one who is most admired.” Within the Renaissance group, Gabriel Attal’s rating is particularly high, according to this parliamentary executive: “He’s the rising star, the one who gives them hope.” The appointment of the young Minister of National Education, darling of the Macronists, as Prime Minister, Tuesday January 9, can only delight most of the deputies in the presidential camp. “Attal is the wow effect we need. I don’t know anyone in the group who doesn’t like it.”assures Renaissance MP Mathieu Lefèvre. “He is seen as an early Macronist who embodies surpassing”supports MP Hadrien Ghomi.
Gabriel Attal must “absolutely everything” to Emmanuel Macron, as he himself reminded the Parisian recently. Pspokesperson for the presidential party, entered the government in 2018 at just 28 years old, as Secretary of State to the Minister of National Education and Youth, he then became government spokesperson, then delegate minister responsible for Public Accounts, before taking charge of National Education.
Now a tenant of Matignon, this pure product of the macronie will have to present the texts of his future government before a National Assembly which still does not have an absolute majority. Like Elisabeth Borne, he should be forced to negotiate “text by text” with the oppositions. Will he encounter the same obstacles as the former head of government, who had to resort to article 49.3 23 times to have budgetary texts or pension reform adopted without a vote and who had to fight severely and give up ballast? to bring about the immigration bill?
A question of style
With Gabriel Attal, a radically different style arrives at Matignon.“He is much more political and much more cash than Elisabeth Borne, he does not go for convoluted sentences, that’s a positive point”underlines a member of the majority. “Gabriel can give a speech without reading a litany of figures like Borne, agrees a ministerial advisor. He’s a pure politician, that commands more respect than a great tactician like Borne.” “He will be more political and punchier than Elisabeth Borne,” also judges a right-wing MP.
He who likes to deal one-on-one with the deputies of the presidential camp does not, however, have a network or clan, as Gérald Darmanin was able to build over the months. “I’m not at all worried about him. Bruno Le Maire, too, doesn’t have an organized network”, ensures an executive of the Renaissance group. Moreover, the “bornists” were neither very numerous nor very organized.
In substance, the differences between the former head of government and her successor are tenuous. “They are two similar personalities on political positioningrecalls Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos. They both come from the left but, unlike Clément Beaune, who still sends some signals to the left, they do not send any. They are seen as neither right nor left.” Like his predecessor, Gabriel Attal will have to learn to deal with opposition from both sides.
Skeptical oppositions
Relations with the LR group in the National Assembly are rather “good”according to a deputy from Olivier Marleix’s group. “Good with a few, indifference with most, even hostility with bangs”nuance another. “We’ll see what that will give in practice. He is very political, he can find compromises.”, assures another LR parliamentarian. The party boss, Eric Ciotti, formed “sincere wishes for success to the new Prime Minister”while asking “a new method of government”.
As for the National Rally, nothing very new under the sun. “It’s difficult to be more sectarian than Borne”mocks Secretary General Renaud Labaye, while warning: “Lhe group strategy defined by Marine Le Pen, in July 2022, will not change: vote for what goes in the right direction, amend what we can improve and oppose what does not go in the right direction. general interest, whatever the origin of the measure!”
On the left, here too, we don’t expect much from Gabriel Attal. His arrival will not change “Nothing”apart “the style”assures the boss of the socialist deputies, Boris Vallaud. “Attal is not the left wing”, he said. It is “a supposedly left-wing man whose mission is to form an alliance with the right”, believes for his part the LFI deputy Alexis Corbière. “Everything suggests that the appointment of Gabriel Attal is only a casting change. If the policy remains the same, the results will be the same”judge Cyrielle Chatelain, president of the environmental group in the Assembly.
Within the presidential majority at the Palais-Bourbon, some still find themselves hopeful. “He knew how to negotiate when he was on budget. It opens up perspectives. Especially since he speaks as much to the left as to the right”, slips Mathieu Lefèvre. But others are much more skeptical. “It will change absolutely nothing in the Assembly”smiles a ministerial advisor.
An unchanged political equation
The political equation remains the same: Emmanuel Macron’s supporters are around forty votes short of having an absolute majority and they have no allies in the chamber. Like Elisabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal should use 49.3 to have budgetary texts adopted and negotiate step by step on other future texts, whether on the constitutionalization of abortion, end of life or the energy mix. This last text is also announced “very touchy” to pass, according to a source within the majority.
“I don’t see what he will be able to bring within the framework of the relative majority, really. His arrival will really be seen as a simple megaphone for the President of the Republic. I think it was a tactical error.”says a Renaissance deputy. “From the perspective of a relative majority, it may not change much as suchrecognizes Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the Ipsos institute. But we must wait for the composition of the government, which may give a different inflection in one direction or another.”
During the transfer of power with Elisabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal promised to bring together “all the living forces of the country” this week. “To the opposition, I tell them that we have the destiny of our nation in common, that we will obviously not agree on everything, that we will oppose each other. But I also make them a promise to always listen to them, always respect them , because through them, it is the voice of millions of French people who express themselves”he said.
On the left, many voices are being raised that the first political act of the new head of government should be to ask for confidence in the National Assembly. Something that Elisabeth Borne had refused, well aware of the risk with a relative majority. At this time, we do not yet know what the new Prime Minister will do. “With this Assembly, it will be hard whatever the name of the Prime Minister”sighs a heavyweight of the majority.