A deadly earthquake devastated Morocco on the night of September 8 to 9. Although it is still impossible to predict earthquakes, systems to alert populations are being developed.
More than 2,000 people perished in the 7.0 magnitude earthquake that hit Morocco, according to the latest figures established on Sunday. After this tragedy which occurred on the night of Friday September 8 to Saturday September 9, the question of predicting earthquakes arises. Charles Francis Richter, the inventor of the famous Richter scale, said: “Only fools, liars and charlatans can predict earthquakes”. While the seismic risk zones are known, it is more complicated to determine when an earthquake will occur.
Hundreds of scientists have dedicated their lives to predicting earthquakes, none have succeeded. Unlike the weather, it is complicated to send a battalion of satellites to monitor what is happening underground. It would then be necessary to accumulate the measurements over several decades, the only way to make simulations and therefore predictions. Researchers are working, in particular, on a new generation of seismic sensors but the results are not yet satisfactory.
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An earthquake alert with mobile phones
In the meantime, we are mainly trying to warn people as quickly as possible that tremors are coming, because the slightest minute, the slightest second saved can save lives. For example, by using the principle of the kidnapping alert, it is possible to warn all the telephones in a given area that the earth is going to shake.
You should know that today, almost all mobiles have a motion sensor sensitive enough to detect seismic waves. By analyzing the vibrations of a single phone, there would be quite a few false alerts. But as this detection is now integrated from the factory into all Android mobiles, this makes it possible to rely on thousands of phones. In particular, those closest to the epicenter to prevent everyone else.
Again, this is not a prediction, but a warning. Depending on where you are, you may only have a few seconds to prepare. But it can be enough to take shelter under a table, with your loved ones.
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A system still in development
The system is quite effective, it regularly gives alerts in the United States near the California fault and it was triggered recently in the Philippines and New Zealand. Around a hundred countries, including France, have already activated it. Unfortunately, it was not yet in Morocco. To put this system in place, agreements must be made with local operators, centralized information and sent targeted alerts. There are issues of data collection and privacy, so it was probably just a question of time and priority.